General Elections-2024: The Bonds of the Indian Electorate!

By all available indicators, trends and analysis the Bhartiya Janata Party(BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—more precisely the Modi Government—is all set to perform a rare hattrick of coming-back-to-power in the 18^th Lok Sabha or General Elecitons-2024 that starts on 19^th April and stretches like IPL all the way to 1^st June when the 7^th phase of voting is scheduled with the counting of results scheduled on 4^th June. A host of media reports/opinion polls, analysis by poll experts/psephologists, the confidence of the ruling BJP in achieving a 400+ tally of seats for its alliance, the NDA’s already achieved hattrick of winning three Assembly Elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in 2023, a divided opposition despite the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance or the INDIA bloc of 27 political parties, and of course, the bonds of an endearing Indian electorate all point to this prediction which is fast becoming a certainty like a walkover before the match even began. The BJP on its own won 282 in 2014, 303 in 2019 and now they predict a tally of 350 seats. Even if they fail to reach 350, they seem almost sure to secure something around 300, and if they do so, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the first ever political leader of India to have achieved a single-party-majority three times in a row—meaning a resounding hattrick on all possible fronts.

The bonds of the Indian electorate seem to be growing warmer and warmer for their beloved leaders and the party, despite the Supreme Court striking down the Electoral Bonds Scheme. Some cynics point out that the vote shares in the previous two General Elections don’t quite bring out the maturing of the bonds of the electorate, because they say that the BJP’s vote share was just around 31% in 2014 and although it increased significantly to nearly 38% in 2019 it’s still lowly in view of the nearly 48% vote share achieved by the Indian National Congress or simply the Congress in 1957 under Jawaharlal Nehru. However, they miss on two points: first, the NDA has been marching along well securing about 45% vote share in the last elections and that since the beginning of ‘coalition politics’ from 1989 onwards the BJP’s achievement of 38% vote share is phenomenal.

The second point needs a little more elaboration. Vote shares are never a sound indicator if the bonds were warm or warmer. Vote shares don’t straightaway translate into winning more and more seats simply thanks to the fact that many candidates of both ruling and opposition parties have been winning seats by the slightest of vote margins which is a confirmed trend of modern poll and political times and that with the emergence of the regional parties there have been too many parties in the fray, sharing/splitting the pie. But on the other hand, the BJP candidates that won by large margins securing more than 50% vote shares of the constituencies concerned have increased from 136 in 2014 to 224 in 2019, and as per the available indicators this figure is set to get bigger this time. Cynics again counter this by saying that in the case of opposition candidates too, the number of wins securing more than 50% of the votes has increased from 64 in 2014 to 117 in 2019 which is more than that of the BJP in percentage terms. However, with the ruling alliance winning over many candidates/factions/parties across the Indian states to its fold quite a few of the erstwhile popular opposition candidates can turn to popular ruling candidates this time.

How big a challenge is the INDIA bloc? Well, even as the marginalization of Congress continues unabated and many parties having expressed their unwillingness either to partner with to share seats with it, the Bloc has been finding it hard to weather the storm keeping its flock together. Besides, most of the parties in the Bloc are extremely self-interested with the big few among them trying to promote their own prime ministerial candidates. And most significantly, they say an absolute ‘no’ to any leader from the Congress, particularly, Rahul Gandhi, emerging as a PM candidate. This is only natural: how could anyone earthily expect leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Akhilesh Yadav among others agree to having Rahul Gandhi or even Mallikarjun Kharge as their leader should they make it to the Lok Sabha? Then the exodus from the Congress, including very senior leaders continues unabated too. Thus the possibility of the Bloc having a unanimous PM candidate remains a mirage. And, to counter a basically personality-driven party the challengers will have to find a unanimous leader—sooner than later. Not to speak of the ideologies involved. The opposition parties are united only in one issue: that the central agencies have been let loose on them with the express political aim of demoralizing or deactivating them. However, the point remains as to why such ‘vindicated’ leaders like Kejriwal are not facing up to the challenge by confronting the agencies and proving their innocence! To be on a little positive side, the Bloc of late has indeed been making some headway in the South and parts of the East and the West.

Having said all this it must be taken into consideration that the sense of overconfidence is not at all healthy under any circumstances. It would be an insult to the elections of the biggest democracy of the world by presuming it to be a foregone conclusion. One particularly should not forget the surprise loss of the visionary leader-statesman-poet-former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2004 when his BJP’s victory was almost a foregone conclusion. The Indian elections are still immensely capable of throwing up surprises, despite all the odds. No doubt, the development story, the growth of Hindu nationalistic patriotism or jingoism, the scintillating Ram Mandir & the dream of Ram Rajya, successes in foreign policy and so on are definitely making the bonds of the electorate get warmer. But on the other hand, some of the bonds could get somewhat adversely affected too by the termination of the Electoral Bonds, the handling of the farmers’ agitation, the promulgation of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) just before the elections, taking the celebrated corrupt leaders of all time liberally into the party fold, the unabashed use of the central agencies and other issues. Besides, the BJP or the NDA still remains entirely Modi-centric. A personality-driven wave need not be repetitive all the time. So then, General Elections-2024 could still be no less than a cricket thriller! Get set and Vote!