North East: Ambit Of AFSPA Reduced In Three States, Final Triumph For Irom Sharmila!

In a historic move today the Indian Home Minister Amit Shah has announced a reduction in the ambit of the dreaded Armed Forces Special Powers Act-1958 (AFSPA) in three North Eastern states of Assam, Nagaland and Manipur. As per the details of the announcement the AFSPA has been removed in 23 districts of Assam, in 7 in Nagaland and in 6 districts of Manipur (under 20 police stations). The home minister said that this decision is made following a drastic improvement in the security situation of the insurgency-infested states and a palpable progress in moving toward peace and development. He claims the move as a credit for the devoted commitment of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. No doubt, the present Chief Minister of Assam Dr. Himanta Biswa Sarma, after defecting from the Congress, had led BJP (ruling Bharatiya Janata Party) to victory in Assam in 2016 and in 2021, and has contributed immensely in establishing dominance of the BJP in nearly all states of the region. So then, some credit is obviously due to the ruling party and a positive move like this is always welcome despite the others on the contrary.

 

The AFSPA has, for the last few decades, always been bitterly contested in the three North East states and in Jammu and Kashmir for its draconian provisions of allowing the army and paramilitary forces to search or arrest or detain any property or individual without any warrant and also the right to shoot anyone on justified or mistaken doubts while enjoying full immunity against prosecution. Massacres of civilians have been happening in all these states over the decades and the Act has been consistently opposed on human rights violations. The United Nations had also questioned the constitutional validity of the AFSPA in view of basic human rights.

 

The AFSPA comes into force whenever the Government of India decides to declare a certain area as ‘disturbed’ due to the failure of local administration to control law and order or to carry on the counter-insurgency operations effectively. Once the AFSPA becomes operative the local police lose their powers to prosecute anybody and have to ask for the approval of the central military forces to go ahead. The killing of 14 civilians in Nagaland in December last year by paramilitary forces had ignited strong opposition against the Act one more time. In 2016 the Supreme Court of India made filing FIRs compulsory for any extrajudicial killings irrespective of whether the victims were common persons or terrorists. The Court was giving this verdict after examining the petition filed by the families of the victims of extrajudicial killings in Manipur seeking justice for the alleged fake encounters of 1528 civilians since the enforcement of AFSPA.

 

History was created in the protests against the AFSPA in Manipur in November 2000 when a massacre of 10 civilians at Malom convinced a young lady of 28 of the state to undertake a fast unto death. The massacre happened on 2^nd November and the lady started her hunger strike on 5^th November, vowing to not eat, drink, comb her hair or even look into the mirror. Three days after her strike the police arrested her on the charge of trying to commit suicide and remanded her to judicial custody. And her hunger strike continued for nearly 16 long years during which she got repeatedly arrested and released briefly every year while she was nasally force-fed (nasogastric intubation) in jail to keep her alive in custody. The lady is Irom Chanu Sharmila, called the ‘Iron Lady of Manipur’ and Mengoubi (the fair one), who came to be known as the ‘world’s longest hunger striker’.

 

Irom Sharmila has been an icon of public resistance and a human rights activist, widely acclaimed nationally and internationally. She came into contact with all crusading national and international leaders and also a few Nobel laureates. As the AFSPA continued to be in force in all her years of fast Irom got increasingly disillusioned and finally ended her fast on 9^th August 2016 with the objective of entering politics to carry on the fight more effectively. Declining offers from several parties she formed her own political party and fought the Manipur assembly elections in 2017, but lost miserably that made her give up all hope for her own people and land.

 

She then married her longtime fiancé Desmond Coutinho, a Goa-born British national, and left Manipur to live in Tamil Nadu and then in Karnataka. Fortunately for her, although there had been much discontent and rage among her supporters after her decision the Supreme Court verdict contributed to some extent in reducing AFSPA excesses. Today, Irom Sharmila’s astounding sacrifices have got some rewards at last and we salute the Iron Lady of Manipur at this historic moment.

 

Assam Chief Minister today has addressed the media expressing his gratitude to his central leadership and welcoming the decision while saying that the presence of the central paramilitary forces in Assam has become insignificant now and is set toward near-full removal with only three districts remaining under AFSPA after the decision. Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh who just got his second term wholeheartedly welcomed the announcement and hoped that this would enable the state move fully in the path of peace and development. We also hope for the complete removal of the dreaded Act in all the states including Jammu and Kashmir in the near future while, at the same time, fully understanding the compulsions of the Government to carry on its counter-terrorism operations effectively.

Assembly Elections-2022 Results: BJP Set To Win The Semi-Finals 4-1, A Decimated Congress Confirmed As The Cause Of Split Opposition!

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has created history in the volatile state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), interspersed with President’s Rule on many an occasion over the past decades, by overriding the anti-incumbency factor that has been in operation in the last 25 years to retain power, and Yogi Adityanath is set to become the first ever Chief Minister of UP to have two consecutive terms. Although the election battle in the state had been fought with open polarization tactics with the Hindutva campaign in full flow the victory with a comfortable majority is still an unprecedented achievement in light of the hurdles of the last two years—the woes of the migrant workers in the COVID-19 pandemic first wave; the abysmal management in the COVID-19 second wave with the rain of deaths and bodies floating the river Ganga; the farmers’ agitation and violence; the uncontrollably high unemployment rate; and the palpable anger of the citizens felt on almost every locality of the state.

 

As per the latest figures the BJP is heading for around 270 seats out of a total of 403 even as the counting for the assembly elections in 5 Indian states continue, although not able to accomplish the 300+ seats target this time as achieved in the last elections. Now the BJP has two paramount winners—PM Modi and Yogi—and the future is surely going to hang on the performances and the magnetism of these leaders. It is believed that the results of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections always have a direct impact on the outcome of the General Elections thanks to its 80 Lok Sabha (lower house of the Indian Parliament) seats as the largest state of India. Therefore, as per that belief the ruling BJP seems set to perform a hat-trick in the 2024 General Elections.

 

The other major highlight of the Assembly Elections-2022 results is the landslide victory for the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) winning an overwhelming 92 seats out of 117 seats in the Punjab assembly elections as per the latest reports. This is like a dream-come-true for the Delhi CM Kejriwal who has been trying extremely hard to build a national presence of his party AAP, and now he has been able to extend it beyond Delhi, to an important state of Punjab. He had announced Bhagwant Singh Mann, AAP’s sitting Lok Sabha MP as the CM-face well before the polls, and the popular actor-comedian has won hands down with a victory margin of over 58000 votes.

 

The people of Punjab, bearing the brunt of the farmers’ agitation and the consequent wrath of the central government, were left clueless by the classic personal feud between the two Congress Sardars—the erstwhile CM Capt. Amrinder Singh and the cricketer-comedian-politician Navjot Singh Sidhu and the spineless conduct of their regional parties—and have wholeheartedly welcomed the populist model of Kejriwal already tried successfully in Delhi despite the ruling BJP breathing heavily over his shoulders. The captain, dismayed at the betrayal by the Congress high command, formed a new party and fought the elections in alliance with the BJP; but he failed miserably to create an impact. Both Amrinder and Sidhu lost their seats among many other stalwarts, such is the sweeping wave for change.

 

The BJP has eliminated the Congress in the states of Uttarakhand and Manipur retaining power clear majority apart from Uttar Pradesh; in Manipur the BJP is going to form the government on its own for the first time. The situation in Goa is still tricky even though BJP seems to inching its way to a simple majority. In light of its previous stunt of grabbing power despite Congress being the single largest party in 2017, it is almost certain that BJP would retain power again having 20 seats out of 40 already. The results are so far based on leads/trends; nevertheless, the leads seem to be conclusive as victory marches in various cities hit the streets.

 

The BJP thinktank’s much-touted slogan of a ‘Congress mukt Bharat’ (Congress-free India) comes as a political masterstroke at this juncture. The thinktank knew very well that Congress being the oldest and the longest-ruling political party of India no united opposition can be viable without its inclusion. And in every election the party has been decimated and demoralized to such an extent that it has now become a clear liability for any aspiring opposition to stop the BJP, the Maharashtra model being the only exception. The dynastic pattern of the Congress has also been targeted repeatedly with a clear objective. Slowly over time, dissidence and defections grew within Congress with many of its promising leaders leaving the party and all other opposition parties became wary of the fact that once an alliance is formed with Congress, the latter’s dynastic leaders would have to made CM or PM faces which the ambitious regional leaders like Mamata Banerjee and Kejriwal cannot ever agree to. Add to that the BJP’s tireless wooing of the regional parties in various states.  

 

So, we’ve seen split oppositions in all the five states that made the BJP retain power in 4 and the AAP in 1 state. This way, the road is very clear indeed to another landslide by BJP in the General Elections-2024. By continuously decimating the Congress the BJP seems to have succeeded in eliminating a united opposition in the largest democracy of the world. Unfortunately, the process thus unfolded has sort of legitimatized the use of polarization and mixing religion with politics, the increasing loss of the true values of secularism, growing assaults on the democratic institutions and constitutional authority, and the spewing of venom and hatred between communities all over the country that is set to go on infecting us nobody knows for how long.

 

A few Congress spokespersons have no other option but to admit in television interviews that their party’s antics in Punjab just four-five months before the elections were extremely uncalled for. The party High Command has, for reasons unknown, totally yielded to the comedian’s never-ending demands making him party president, ousting a performing CM Captain Amrinder Singh, installing the comedian’s protégé as the new CM Charanjit Singh Channi who incidentally has lost both the seats he contested as per the latest reports and giving the comedian all the power as he feels like in running the government or the election campaign. Other dissident but very experienced Congress veterans have also said that the Gandhi (read dynastic) leadership has outlived its relevance. It is also a quirk of nature that another actor-comedian has come in to replace the black comedian to make the people of Punjab feel better, hopefully!

ECI Extends Ban On Public Election Rallies Till February 11: Economic Survey Tabled And Budget-2022 Tomorrow!

We must commend the constitutionally autonomous body of the Election Commission of India (ECI) for sticking to its strong resolve to make the upcoming 7-phase state assembly elections COVID-safe for all by extending the pandemic ban on rallies/roadshows till February 11 following a review for the second time today which is quite effectively done as the first phase of the elections begins on 10^th February. While announcing the dates for assembly elections in five states on 8^th January the ECI banned all public rallies, roadshows and bike or cycle marches till 15^thof that month subject to a review on 15^th January and in that review the ECI stuck to its ban, only allowing physical rallies subject to a maximum of 500 persons for the political party candidates to contest in the first phase from January 28, a date when all formalities of nominations for that phase are completed. Similarly, for the second phase the relaxed rallies to commence from 31^st January with the same restrictions.

 

Amid the current chock-a-block politico-financial scenario with the Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressing the first major virtual rally for Uttar Pradesh today, campaigning by all political parties hotting up for the first phase of polling, Parliament session starting from today and the Budget-2022 to be presented tomorrow, the ECI took the bold step of extending the ban and its commitment. Of course, with the apparent easing up of Omicron infection scare in most parts of the country the Commission has given some relaxations: open-air physical rallies to be allowed subject to a maximum of 1000 people instead of the earlier 500 limit; a maximum of 500 people to be allowed for indoor rallies; and for door-to-door campaigns the limit of supporters increased to 20 from 5 earlier.

 

However, it is not clear who will have to accomplish the near-impossible task of counting the people assembled in open-air rallies or roadshows and how to prevent hordes of supporters coming to attend. This syndrome is valid for all political parties, their supporters and their rallies or roadshows. The police cannot possibly set up barricades during the most democratic festival of the country. Further, allowing 500 people for indoor meetings is fraught with more serious danger of the spread of infections in closed environs. The earlier 50% capacity crowd seems to be the most desirable option still. But in totality, the consistent efforts of the ECI are laudable.

 

Meanwhile, the Finance Minister of India, Nirmala Sitharaman has today tabled the Economic Survey-2021-22 presenting a positive picture for the economy with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow at 8 to 8.5% for the coming fiscal year. The Survey reveals that this rate is compatible with reference to the latest forecasts by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank of real GDP growth at 8.7% and 7.5% for the next two fiscals. Besides, as per the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth projections, released on 25^th January, 2022, India’s real GDP is projected to grow at around 9 per cent in both 2021-22 and 2022-23 and at 7.1 per cent in 2023-24. This projects India as the fastest growing major economy in the world in all these three years. All such projections are based on the assumptions that there will no more debilitating effects from the pandemic and that the monsoon is going to be normal. Agriculture, the least affected sector by the pandemic, is to continue growing steadily; the industrial sector is expected to witness a strong rebound from a contraction of 7% in 2020-21 to a high positive of 11.8% in 2021-22; and private sector investment is to pick up strongly in the next fiscal.

 

The finance minister Sitharaman is going to present the Budget-2022 tomorrow, February 1, in the Parliament amid demands by various financial and industry experts that include strengthening the infrastructure investment, imposition of no unnecessary taxes, efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit, to boost consumption demand in the lower strata of the society, to increase the allocation for the healthcare sector and having a clear divestment or disinvestment policy. There are also expectations that the exemption limit or the standard deduction limit for income tax could be increased and many more sops anticipated for an economy devastated by the three waves of the pandemic. For all that we’ll have to wait till tomorrow.

Assembly Election Dates Announced By The ECI: Step Aside, Omicron!

The Election Commission of India (ECI) has today, a day when the country logged 1,41,986 new COVID-19 cases, announced the dates for assembly elections in 5 states of India, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa, starting from February 10, 2022. The polling in all five states will be completed between 10^th February and 7^th March in seven phases while the counting is to take place on 10^th March for all five states. UP election will be spread over all the seven phases till 7^th March; Uttarakhand, Punjab and Goa will have single phase polls on 14^th February; and Manipur will have two-phase polling due to security concerns in the state on 27^thFebruary and March 3, 2022. More than 180 million citizens are set to exercise their voting rights during this what is often referred as festival of democracy.

 

The Chief Election Commissioner (CEC), Sushil Chandra, assured while addressing a press conference in the national capital Delhi that the elections would be fully COVID-19 safe for all stakeholders—the authorities, the polling officials and the voters. He said that the ECI has held consultations with the concerned authorities in all the states taking stock of the situation and asked them to ramp up vaccination to have all the voters fully vaccinated by next month.  The polling officials will be given the double doses and the booster dose too as far as possible. The voting hours have also been increased by an hour.

 

The CEC further said that the number of polling stations and booths has been jacked up for easy and safe polling with the number of voters per polling booth being reduced from 1500 to 1250. All COVID appropriate measures will be enforced in all polling stations with masks, sanitizers made available there, he added. Asked about the exponential Omicron spread across the country Chandra quickly pointed out that elections are not taking place in the worst affected states like Maharashtra, West Bengal and Delhi. However, he assured, that the ECI will keep on monitoring the situations in all the poll-bound states and adopt measures as necessary.

 

The biggest positive point about the ECI briefing is that all political rallies, roadshows and processions of any sort are banned till January 15, 2022, after which the Commission would review the situation for further action, and that there shall be no victory marches after counting. The normal regulation declared during the assembly elections amid the second wave last year will continue which is that there will no rallies or gatherings of any kind from 8 pm to 8 am daily till the end of the poll schedule. Secondly, the 80+ senior citizens and COVID positive patients can vote through the postal ballots from their homes where the ECI teams would supervise. The logistics for this operation could become unmanageable depending on the situation of active cases in the concerned states. Thirdly, candidates from all parties will have to declare their criminal records publicly on newspapers and news channels and their respective political parties would require to furnish reasons to the ECI as to why tickets are given to such candidates. If implemented without government interference this may result in a most positive development to a persistent issue.

 

Another provision could’ve been a positive takeaway had the ECI made it mandatory to file nominations online. But unfortunately, the ECI has made this mode of filing nomination only optional. The CEC Sushil Chandra also said that any delay in holding the elections would’ve been undemocratic. Well, the love for democracy in our country is becoming quite selective nowadays. During the elections held last year amid the raging second wave when the vaccination was not at all adequate, a large number of polling officials and other frontline officials succumbed to COVID-19 infections. Perhaps, they all sacrificed their lives for this love for democracy. Nevertheless, this time the ECI has shown some promising moves and it’d all depend on how much guts it has to implement all these.

 

About the Omicron-led COVID-19 situation in the country it seems certain now that all the governments/authorities have accepted gratefully that Omicron is a mild virus and cannot cause any medical needs in the fully vaccinated citizens. Many states have pointed out that most medical admissions, that too not serious, have been of that of the unvaccinated while some cities boast that there has not been a single ICU case. Well, with the hospital beds still empty, medical oxygen in full supply and jabs in full swing plus booster doses already starting, they can legitimately be complacent and boast. 

No wonder, the sate of Maharashtra that registered more than 40,000 new cases in the last 24 hours, is still sitting pretty and contented. We fervently hope that they are indeed doing the right thing and that the Omicron scare disappear soon and the warnings of the supreme health authority, WHO, prove totally unwarranted. In any case, why to blame the elections only while religious festivals like the Ganga Sagar Melain West Bengal being allowed where millions of devotees across the country are taking holy dips, like they did during the Kumbh Mela last year in the peak of the second wave.

Prime Minister Speaks: And Then The Three Farm Laws To Be Repealed!

In a totally unexpected development, the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi in an address to the nation early morning today has, on the occasion of Guru Nanak Birth anniversary called Guru Purab or Prakash Parv (a holy festival observed by the Sikhs on the birth/demise anniversaries of the their Saints/Gurus), announced the Government’s decision to repeal the three controversial Farm Laws the constitutional formalities of which are going to be completed in the winter session of the Indian Parliament starting from 29^th November 2021. The Prime Minister, though, stoutly defended the Farm Laws saying that these reforms were brought in favor of the farmers, particularly the small and marginal farmers; however, he admitted that the laws could not convince sections of the farmers and dissatisfied cultivators cannot be left behind. Narendra Modi added that perhaps the government’s ‘dedication’ to uplift the cultivators of the country was not enough. The Prime Minister also promised to revamp and strengthen the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) of crops mechanism by appointing a committee of state representatives, farmers, agricultural experts and economists, and this step was also to be decided in the Parliament session.

 

The Farmers’ Movement has been going on for nearly a year with thousands of them camping in the outskirts of capital Delhi and suffering through all four seasons, many of them perishing in the camps. They have been observing various programs of highway blockades; rail blockades; Delhi marches during one of which on the Republic Day of 26^th January this year there was a burst of unprecedented, arguably unintended, violence in the capital; marches to the Parliament; Bharat Bandhs; and so on. Around 11 rounds of talks with the Modi government failed to resolve the issue and the government allegedly tried to repress the movement in various ways like trying to win over factions to support the laws or taking tough measures in the areas of the camps and so on. The trust-deficit of the farmers in the Government of India has worsened so much that even now, at this welcome announcement, the top leadership of the farmers says that the movement will continue till the last nail on the cancelation of the three laws gets hammered in during the Parliament as promised.

 

Be it for the forthcoming assembly elections in five states including the crucial states of the definitive (for General Elections) Uttar Pradesh and Punjab where the BJP is still a minor player even after the Amarinder Singh defection from the Congress, or be it the final realization of the Prime Minister about the intrinsic fears lurking in the provisions of the laws this huge announcement is indeed very welcome—basically because no nation can survive for long keeping the food-givers unhappy and agitating; for the farmers it comes as the final victory; the success of democratic movements; and for the BJP a favorable factor to seal the assembly elections. As has been hailed all around the decision is indeed a political ‘masterstroke’ on the eve of the assembly elections early next year, suddenly taking away the main vote plank from the opposition political parties, particularly for the Congress tactics in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. The opposition has largely welcomed the step calling it a victory for the farmers and that it marks the end of the ruling party’s ‘arrogance’.

 

Agrarian reforms have always been a contentious issue in most of the nations of the world, particularly India where agriculture is still the mainstay of the country’s economy. Attempts at reforming the farming sector have been going on since the British period and the post-independence era in India where many of the reforms proved to be big blunders while some of these seemed to have benefited the farmers. Most of the nations of the world have been following a capitalist form of agriculture with a regular mechanism of giving subsidies to help the land-holding phenomena of farming survive, and the concept of ‘cooperative farming’ in the most inclusive sense still remains a dream.

 

The Prime Minister while stoutly defending the three Farm Laws failed to mention the fact that many of the top Indian economists and agriculturists were bitterly divided over the issue—the main fear being the big capitalists taking over farming putting the farmers at their mercy for the MSPs or guaranteed prices and ending the land ownership cultivation of the small and marginal farmers. Yet, inequalities in the farming community continue to exist with some of them being affluent enjoying the benefits of technology while most of the small and marginal farmers continue to struggle at a subsistence level. Therefore, truly convincing and inclusive reforms are always welcome.

 

In any case, we heartily welcome this big announcement by the Prime Minister largely for the fact that one of the longest ever agitations, particularly by the food-givers, is finally going to end. Debates must go on for reforms and one of the main allegations of the opposition parties and other experts and leaders had been the fact that there was no debate before passing these crucial Farm Laws in Parliament. The target or the task is extremely difficult no doubt, because in a democracy it is well-nigh impossible to satisfy all stakeholders with a particular policy; however as we have said the efforts must be intensified democratically taking all into consideration.

Bihar Elections-2020: Was Chirag Paswan BJP’s Conscious Strategy?

 

Defying all exit polls, the BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) came back to power with a simple majority in the closely fought Bihar Assembly Elections-2020, giving the fourth consecutive CM-term and fifth overall to Nitish Kumar. All of the exit polls gave simple to two-third majority to the MGB (Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance) led by the young energetic face of Bihar, Tejaswi Yadav, son of the Bihar stalwart and former Chief Minister for three terms, Laloo Prasad Yadav, who had been in jail since a long time on corruption cases, and predicted Tejaswi to be the next CM. One or two exit polls indicated, in the worst scenario, a hung assembly.

 

Various reasons have been ascribed for the incredible comeback of the NDA against all odds. The primary reasons are: the continuing influence of the Modi-factor, the 12 crucial rallies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Bihar where he warned people against falling for the ‘Jungle Reign’ of the RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) led by Laloo and family, a majority of the women voters favoring Modi and the NDA, and that Asaduddin Owaisi, MP and President of AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen), deciding to contest on its own in all the Muslim-dominated regions of the state, and thus weaning away crucial votes that RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) and the Congress were expected to garner for the MGB.

 

However, the most crucial factor or the so-called X-factor had been the pre-poll acrobatics of the Lok Janshakti Dal (LJP which was formed in 2000 by Ram Vilas Paswan) led by Member of Parliament Chirag Paswan, son of another stalwart of Bihar politics, Ram Vilas Paswan, who had been a central minister for the NDA government in India and unfortunately died on 8^th October this year. He also served as a minister in the UPA government earlier under former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. When Ram Vilas was alive in the first week of October the LJP left the NDA in Bihar saying that they did not want to fight elections under Nitish Kumar, and would continue to support BJP fighting on its own. So, the LJP went ahead contesting as many as 143 seats in the 243-seat Bihar legislative assembly.

 

After the demise of Ram Vilas, Chirag had been consistently opposing the leadership of Nitish Kumar and saying that they would be devoted to Modi and BJP and would form a government with the BJP in a new alliance. So, a situation emerged where a party not in the time-tested BJP alliance led a campaign against an integral NDA partner while vowing all the support for the BJP. And the BJP leadership kept mum all the time on Chirag utterances and deeds. This politically-unique Chirag-factor has been discussed and analyzed by various political experts all the while; but since the absurd situation made my head break at times, I decided to write about it.

 

It is not at all practical to assume that the BJP think-tank was not aware of the strong anti-incumbency wave against three-term-CM Nitish Kumar and open public anger for his mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic and the migrant workers of the state. The party leadership must have thought about it, and after much brainstorming must have approved the Chirag factor. There were obvious reasons why this strategy would work:

v This was sure to improve the acceptability of the BJP as it in a way joined the voters in their wrath against the serving Chief Minister;

v BJP has been known to playing as a Big Brother in any alliance in states, and this strategy would either eliminate Nitish’s JDU (Janata Dal-United) from the alliance entirely or would reduce its numbers drastically making its influence much weaker;

v Even if the probability of forming a BJP-LJP government in Bihar was far remote, the Chirag-factor would at least contribute as a vote-cutter, mostly affecting the JDU candidates and also for the RJD and other partners of the MGB like the Congress and the Left; and

v This strategy can also be seen as an effective counter against the surging young leader Tejaswi putting up another energetic young promising leader in the guise of Chirag.

Now, after the results were finally declared in the wee hours of 11^th November the following benefits to the BJP were apparent:

vBJP’s tally of seats increased remarkably to 74, almost making it the singe largest party in the assembly;

vAs was anticipated, JDU’s seats got hit to the extent of a loss of 28 seats, effectively making it the junior partner in the alliance;

vAs the margins of victories in the suspense-thriller of an election were very thin the Chirag vote-cutting visibly harmed the prospects of RJD and the Congress primarily, in many crucial assembly constituencies; and

vEven though the LJP finally managed to win only one seat it has emerged strongly as an ally for the BJP in future.

Of course, the strategy had its elements or risks that Nitish Kumar would decide to feel insulted and humiliated by the actions of non-NDA Chirag Paswan, and would walk out of the alliance post-poll which eventuality would have made the situation ripe for a Maharashtra-like twist. Therefore, the BJP always maintained that JDU had been an integral part of the NDA and Nitish Kumar was always the Chief Minister candidate. After declaration of the results the BJP has again reiterated the fifth term for Nitish. In the event of a BJP-LJP majority Nitish would have definitely been out even as Nitish said, emotionally and also significantly, in his last rally that it was going to be his last election.

 

How effectively the NDA alliance in Bihar works in the coming months and years is to be observed and seen. MGB has emerged as a great force in the state with 110 seats, and it will not be an easy ride for the NDA at 125 seats. Creating more and more jobs and tackling the migrant workers expertly would be the acid test for the new government, and the MGB won many hearts in Bihar with its focus on creation of jobs. In an expected move today, the Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, while announcing another pandemic-stimulus package listed out a plethora of measures for job creation across the country.

Election Politics: Congress Makes It 1-4 Now!

Of the five Indian states that went to poll counting for the north eastern state of Mizoram was taken up today. And the intensely introspective Congress party managed to make it 1-4 as a saving grace. On the momentous day yesterday BJP roared back to power in Rajasthan with three fourth majority, swept Madhya Pradesh and managed to retain Chattisgarh too.

Only Delhi has a hung assembly with BJP being the single largest party. There is lot of uncertainty here as Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) cannot afford to ally with any party on principle of fighting corruption. And it cannot have full faith in its winning candidates because the lure of political power and money might tempt them to defect to BJP. Therefore AAP is not taking any chances now.

In this much touted Semi Final for General Election 2014 BJP defeated Congress 4-1 and is getting emboldened to take the ruling coalition and all Congress ruled states like Maharashtra by the throat. Meanwhile in south Africa it would be very interesting to watch if Team India could also make it 1-2 against the hosts!

BJP Beats Congress 4-0, South Africa Beat India 2-0!

It was expected though not entirely predictable--in both cases.

Over the last few years Congress came to be identified with corruption thanks to various scams of the ruling coalition. Anna Hazare started the movement against corruption and rocked the whole of India--particularly Delhi. The BJP constantly attacking Congress on corruption and moving around Anna not exactly supporting or opposing him somewhat escaped being clubbed with corruption or Congress. Then BJP launched Narendra Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate. Add to it the unabated inflation. For the four states that went to Assembly polls in November-December, 2013 these factors possibly led to a wave for change with record voting percentage in most states and BJP beat Congress 4-0, almost. It was a sweep in BJP ruled Madhya Pradesh and a grand comeback in Rajasthan. BJP ruled Chattisgarh was also retained after a tough Congress fight that happened largely due to the recent Naxal attack on its leaders. Arvind Kejriwal who broke away from Anna Hazare in the right time to become political created waves in Delhi poll capturing the second position and thus depriving BJP a clear majority. Congress that ruled Delhi for 15 years came a miserable third. Counting was taken up on Sunday, the 8th of November, with BJP leading 4-0 in a sort of run up to General Election-2014.

Touring South Africa with 6 successive Series wins to boot India lost the second one day international cricket match against South Africa too. Yet to find answers to South African pacers India again lost by a huge margin chasing a total of 280/6. South Africa beat India 2-0 in Durban on Sunday, the 8th of November to win the ODI Series.

Kill Bill, Lalu Shrill, Election Drill, Voters Thrill!

As I cool my heels in my native city Guwahati make no frills about all the thrills of politicking in the meantime. Starting with the Bill or rather the Ordinance to protect convicted politicians the Prime Minister of India returned from the US and, as anticipated widely, decided to kill the Bill in his Cabinet meeting thanks to Rahul Gandhi's vitriolics. All got seemingly well between the head of the Government and the Vice President of the party that leads the Government.

As an immediate casualty of the killed bill Bihar veteran Lalu Prasad Yadav got convicted for stealing food from the animals and sentenced five years in jail. At the moment the politician is having sleepless nights thanks to the jail mosquitoes and insects that do not discriminate. Some other about to be convicted criminal politicians are fast losing hope in their own system.

And today Assembly Elections are declared for five states starting November 11 to December 4 with the date of counting fixed on 8th December--a date that could greatly impact General Elections-2014. More thrillingly for voters and non-voters, the Right to Reject is set to start with these polls. Election Commission officials point out that the electronic voting machines have an in-built system to take more options like 'None of the Above'. So, no frills, only thrills!

Bizarre Happenings and Politics of Turmoil!

From ancient times it has been a proven war strategy to try strike the enemy at it weakest point. At the moment the ruling coalition of India seems to be the common enemy thanks to all sorts of campaigns and bizarre happenings. And of course, the coalition has been at its weakest due to the number game and a series of unending scams.

If a few crucial allies withdraw support the ruling coalition of India will be reduced to minority and these allies got emboldened by the recent election results in five states of the country where Congress—the main part of the coalition—did poorly including at the most politically strategic state of Uttar Pradesh.

Opposition political parties saw another opportunity to corner the government and joined hands with the allies directly or indirectly. The state election results also indicated a possible reemergence of regional forces at the cost of the national opposition parties. The debate on center-state power equation in the federal structure of the country heated up questioning the Govt. of India on its proposals to enact central laws regarding the anti-corruption ombudsman and a national counter-terrorism center. And, bizarre happenings have become the order of the day.

• Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party came back to power in Uttar Pradesh with thundering majority and dad Mulayam ruled for his son Akhilesh to become the new Chief Minister. A major constituent of the central coalition Samajwadi Party’s continued support was reiterated by Mulayam. But suddenly he began to dream about becoming the next Prime Minister of India! Why now…obviously!
• The regional party in the southern state of Tamil Nadu—another strong constituent of the coalition—forced the government to vote against Sri Lanka in the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. A decision which the government of India would have examined intensively otherwise. Why now…obviously!  
• The regional party in the eastern state of West Bengal—another troublesome ally of the coalition—sacked its own railway minister at the center for presenting a healthy railway budget for 2012-13. The party feigned ignorance about the proposal to hike railway fares after almost a decade and created havoc just after the budget was presented. A new leader from the party was appointed as the railway minister and he immediately announced a rollback. While common people never objected to this most-urgent fare hike the party stuck to its populist propaganda or blackmail. Why now…obviously!
• In a sinister move the newly elected regional government in the northern state of Punjab decided to ask clemency for an assassin on death row who killed a former chief minister of the same state and who had been prosecuted by the same state government since 1995.  Why and why now? For regional or religious support? It is hazardous and extremely harmful to try guess any further. But obvious from our line of argument.
• The Chief of Indian Army General V K Singh chose his time to deliver a bombshell. He alleged that a huge bribe was offered to him by a retired General in 2010 to get a deal for sub-standard equipments passed. He refused of course, but waited for nearly two years to disclose the facts. General Singh had already been engaged in a bitter row with the government of India concerning his age and date of birth. Two sets of documents reveal two separate dates of births and years. He fought against the government in the Supreme Court, but lost the legal battle. So, as per his official date of birth he was to retire in May, 2012 and if the other date was proved he would have retired after nine months from this. General Singh also alleged of rampant corruption in army making it obsolete and thus compromising the security of the country in a letter written to the Prime Minister. Why this particular timing…well not that obvious, but giving ample opportunities for the interested parties to intensify attack on the ‘common enemy’.

The largest democracy of the world looks set on a course of bitter ‘democratic’ fights and politics of turmoil. Things are set at the moment to get murkier and more bizarre as time progresses.

For the citizens of the country identifying the ‘common enemy’ seems to be the most urgent task of the hour. Goddamned difficult it is going to be indeed!

State Elections of India 2012: Sidelights!

Yesterday was a hectic day for all in the Indian media including this writer as counting for assembly election results of the five states of India started at 8am sharp. This was rated as the semi-final for India’s General Elections of 2014 and so the media hyperactivity and expectations were at the peak.  All news channels were live the whole day and late into the night debating, analyzing, assessing, speculating and of course reporting the trends, results and possible government formations with permutations and combinations. Not possible to give you everything here and so we have selected a few observations for you on calculations based on various exit polls going terribly or pleasantly wrong from the media point of view.

• The first state of interest was Uttar Pradesh—the biggest and politically the most important state of India. Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi campaigned extensively here to oust feudalistic and corrupt Mayawati and bring in a rejuvenated Congress. Mayawati was ousted alright, but Congress fared only marginally better than last time. Since his campaign itself was hyped his apparent defeat was hyped even more.
• Representing the young generation Rahul succeeded in only throwing out Mayawati while another young leader of Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav—son of the former chief minister—brought his Samajwadi Party (SP) back to power. That too a landslide victory with a stunning majority when all in media were speculating about a hung assembly with immense possibilities, who can ally with whom and even imposition of President’s rule there.
• SP back in power with resounding success gave way to more speculation, because SP is considered as a party of goons and as another feudalistic force replacing the other. In fact, some journalists were attacked and taken hostage last night by SP workers. But young Akhilesh is well-educated, down-to-earth and relatively liberated. So the question is how he is going to rule the state! With his dad around live and kicking he cannot possibly become the next chief minister! And comically, the first question he faced from the media was ‘Will you destroy all the statues of Mayawati now?’ The young man said ‘No!’ Before political campaigning the Election Commission of India had ordered all statues to be veiled immediately!
• Recording an all time voting record of 81% Goa gave a clear verdict. The ruling Congress alliance was beset with problems of the illegal land mining scam and tourist security, but nobody could predict its unceremonious ousting. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance got rewarded with nearly two-third majority in the 40-member Assembly.
• In Punjab it was cut-throat between Congress and Akali Dal-BJP alliance, but actually the latter secured a record number of seats coming back for the second term.
• Scam-corruption-inflation infested India’s ruling coalition is under tremendous pressure from opposition parties and the media due to poor performance of Congress. ‘What will happen to you in 2014?’ The answer is ‘No impact!’ And yes, who knows! The other question being would the newly elected parties be able to function free of the same vices!

In a true democracy you are not at all supposed to predict the citizens’ verdict. It’s because of creation of vote banks, politics of compartmentalization and polarization and the like that prediction is often accurate. If more than 80% of India decides someday to vote the result is bound to be most democratically unpredictable.