The Endless Congress Dilemma Is Advantage BJP And A Constant Bottleneck For United Opposition!

The only political party that is always having the last laughs on the pathetically prolonged Congress dilemma and its manifestations is obviously the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and is greatly advantaged to stage a hat-trick of victory in the 2024 General Elections, even though the biggest national democratic exercise is more than two and half years away. The oldest political party of India, the Indian National Congress (INC or simply Congress), has been suffering consecutive routs in both the General Elections since 2014 and in most of the Assembly Elections in recent times, leading everyone to believe that the only second pan-India party, apart from the BJP since 2014, is caught in the throes of an irreversible decline and fall. It still remains a party bound irrevocably to the Gandhi family, despite the repeated failures of the leadership and internal conflicts led by several veteran Congress leaders called the G-23 demanding a change in leadership and holding organizational elections for more than two years now, after the debacle of the 2019 General Elections. The Congress High Command, instead of listening to their own stalwarts and discussing openly the issues, has been following a confrontational line thanks perhaps to the grand advice offered by the old guards, always supporting the Gandhi leadership in a mental framework akin almost to sycophancy and slavery.

 

The resignation of the then Congress President Rahul Gandhi after the rout in 2019 and his steadfast refusal to hold the post again, the growth of the G-23, the growing dissidence all across the country, the mess the party created in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh losing power after coming back to electoral victories, the continuing drama in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and the pending meet of the Congress Working Committee (CWC) failed, as always, to convince the ‘high command’ about the urgent need for structural changes and democratic reforms within the party. Instead, the loyal old guards pitifully prayed to Rahul Gandhi to reconsider and failing to do so requested the erstwhile President Sonia Gandhi to be the interim president to which she obliged. Thanks to a caustic remark by one of the most prominent Congress veterans of the G-23, Kapil Sibal, that he was not aware about who had been the taking the party decisions as there was no permanent leadership, the ‘high command’ finally called for a CWC meeting recently.

 

But alas, no crucial decisions were taken in the meeting about making the Congress united and strong. What had been seen and heard was that Sonia Gandhi confirmed herself as a full-time president and that a new president would be elected after she complete her term which is almost one year away and during which the crucial assembly elections of Uttar Pradesh and Punjab are to take place. Lady Gandhi further accentuated the divide by telling the 23 leaders of the differently-opinionated group to approach her directly for discussions and not through the media, failing miserably to understand why at all the G-23 was forced to go to the media. The old guards again pleaded with Rahul Gandhi to resume next year to which Rahul assured of reconsideration. Of course, the CWC promised party elections and a new president during August-September, 2022. The two leaders of the G-23 who were present in the meeting, unfortunately, lacked the courage to make bold demands which raises questions about the potent political impact of the group. The party gleefully delighted about the proceedings is again the BJP, because as long as Congress remains dynastic and weak it’s their furtherance of the ambition to capture the whole of India by 2024.

 

As is now obvious, the biggest setback that looms due to the prolonged dilemma of the Congress is for the prospect of forming a national united opposition front—as an effective force to counter the BJP expansion—notwithstanding the ardent efforts of Mamata Bannerjee who defeated the BJP loud and clear in her state of West Bengal. While the Congress high command always supported Mamata’s efforts the Congress state party in West Bengal did everything for a division of votes by forming an alliance with the Communist Party-Marxist (CPM) that directly favored the BJP plunge in the state in the West Bengal Assembly Elections-2021; it is only due to the mature decision of the voters who never wanted a communal party to come to power in their secular state that helped Mamata achieving a landslide, and of course, the electoral-strategy wizard Prashant Kishore who joined Mamata’s Trinamool (grass-root) Congress (TMC) was a great help in terms of strategy and planning. Ironically, the same Prashant Kishore who expressed his willingness to join the Congress to help them lead a united opposition has still not been realized.

 

This puts all the political opposition parties of the country in a dilemma too: they realize that any united front cannot be formalized without the participation of oldest political party and its pan-India status; but as has been proved in Bihar where the promising young leader Tejashwi Yadav lost by an agonizing margin to BJP in the Bihar Assembly Elections-2020 due mainly to the non-performance of his prime ally Congress and in Assam where the Congress failed to work out an understanding with the emerging regional parties and instead joined forces with another communal party thus effectively creating a division of votes which clearly favored a worried BJP retain power in the Assam Assembly Elections-2021; barring Maharashtra where Congress is still sticking successfully to the opposition coalition government in spite of the some stray contrary comments made by its leaders now and then, in most of the other states the party has been viewed as a liability for any opposition alliance.

 

The case of the state of Punjab which is always considered the unassailable stronghold of the Congress party comes as the latest case in support of the party being called a liability and mostly, inadvertently or otherwise, favoring the BJP in expanding their roots. The Punjab crisis led to the ousting of the strong Chief Minister and Congress veteran Captain Amarinder Singh who now is reported to be moving toward joining the BJP, like numerous other promising Congress leaders leaving or planning to leave the party over the past two years. The Congress high command, mainly Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi, sided with a comically inconsistent Navjot Singh Sidhu who, even after fulfilling his target of assuming the state Congress chief post and having a change of chief minister and government, recently resigned from the post and a few days later did an about-turn rejoining his post, supposedly after his talks with the Congress ‘high command’, and in an immaculate dynastic hold the party is projecting Priyanka Gandhi as the new Chief Ministerial face for the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections early next year. Punjab too will go for assembly elections during the same time and the present Congress-created crisis favors the BJP strongly to consider make a tremendous fight to gain power for the first time.

 

Nobody can guess with conviction how and when this Congress dilemma is going to end or end the party itself from the Indian election scenario. For any tangible action by Congress one will have to wait for another year. In this perspective the role of the G-23 is crucial in trying to debate within the party and convince the party for a change that is so much needed to change its tag of an ‘unreliable ally’ in all forthcoming electoral alliances. There have been issues always to counter the ruling power: the disastrous handling of the Second Wave of COVID-19 and the vaccination hassles; the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) movement; the ever-rising fuel prices crossing the 100-rupee mark and still moving ahead; the still unresolved farmers’ agitation and the recent violence in Lakhimpur-Kheri in BJP-ruled Uttar Pradesh leading to deaths of four farmers; the increasing communal divide and lynching cases; and the alleged bulldozing of democratic norms and values. Rahul Gandhi, of course, makes the right kind of noises, but he vanishes afterward, at times into his unpredictably mysterious sabbaticals; and not allowing the Indian Parliament to function is clearly not an alternative. The oldest political party of India must introspect very intensely indeed and time is running out.  Else, the monopoly of the BJP is set to continue like a juggernaut and in the furtherance of its most loved ambition of having a one-party and much-hyped Congress-free democracy in India.

Bihar Maha Bitterness: Why Board And Then Blame The Sinking Ship!

 

After riding on a palpable anti-incumbency wave and the predictions of clear victory by all of the exit polls the ultimate narrow defeat of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) in the Bihar Assembly Elections-2020 is bound to cause huge disappointment and bitterness. Unable to accept defeat the leaders of the RJD first started attacking the Election Commission on a variety of alleged anomalies in counting, and then picked out the main alliance partner, the Indian National Congress (INC), for letting them down. A prominent RJD leader attacked Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka Gandhi for their alleged callousness towards the election. The leader further alleged that they did not come for the election campaigns attending a very few rallies, but were only interested in having picnics. He also questioned the internal management of the INC and its lack of introspection.

 

Having said that, we must examine the underlying factors. The RJD under the leadership of a young and energetic Tejashwi Yadav must have been aware of the anti-incumbency wave and the strong public anger against the serving Chief Minister (CM) Nitish Kumar, and also of the strategic Chirag Paswan factor as a vote-cutter. In that scenario, why at all did Yadav’s party allot as many as 70 seats to the Congress or the INC! They must also have been aware of the Congress track record since 2014. Considering everything the RJD should have fought in at least 200 seats sharing the remaining 43 with its allies, more to the Left parties and the least to the Congress. Once one boards a sinking ship, one loses the right to put the blame on it if it does sink later. Some leaders of the RJD have now realized this mistake and are regretting that they should not have succumbed to the pressure applied by the Congress for a larger seat-share. Therefore, it’s an opportunity lost for the RJD, entirely, and not at all for the Congress that had been used to poor performances. Confined to Tejashwi Yadav Vs Nitish Kumar, majority of the people of Bihar wanted the former to be their CM.

 

Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, has become a monolith in the INC, nobody can either wish him away or accept him. Thanks to his historical position he has always been the punching bag for all political opponents, analysts and even such unlikely observers as the former US President Obama! As a Youth Congress leader initially, Rahul had been the fresh young face inducted into the Congress party, but unfortunately, he got fossilized in that role over the years/decades. The old guards, scared of being forgotten and desperately clutching at the power stick, surrounded and guided Rahul and his mother and Congress interim President Sonia Gandhi as the staunchest of loyalists, for their mere survival.  

 

With a bright career as a student behind him Rahul had the intelligence to understand the significance of the momentous defeats of 2014 and 2019 in General Elections, and so, he resigned as Congress President in 2019, and was adamant never to assume that role again. The old guards got petrified with fear lest a non-dynastic younger leader got elected for the post. So, they convinced Sonia Gandhi to carry on, and again in 2020 the loyalists persisted on Sonia Gandhi to continue as the interim President of the party.

 

Thanks to the anti-incumbency factors Congress under Rahul did win three assembly elections in 2018, but the old guards insisted on appointing CMs of their ilk in those three states, and definitely not the promising and younger leaders who worked hard for the wins. Due to the cardinal sin of depriving the dynamic Jyotiraditya Scindia of a CM role, the party lost its government in Madhya Pradesh early this year. They nearly lost Rajasthan in July 2020, again thanks to the same myopic vision of not taking the party’s younger leaders into the scheme of things. This has created dissidence in the party structure with leaders like Kapil Sibal, Shashi Tharoor, Manish Tewary and others urging the party to introspect. And, the colossus decided to take punitive action against them, instead of doing the much-needed exercise.

 

Now, the RJD leaders too are trying to sing with the dissident leaders of the Congress. Kapil Sibal has again alleged that the INC has not been introspecting for the last six years which is true indeed. The RJD also did not have much to boast of with the Laloo legacy still staring and not sparing. However, Tejashwi almost came out of that legacy, establishing himself as a leader of much promise, on his own. But miscalculations within his own party prevented him from becoming the youngest CM of the state.

 

Meanwhile, Nitish Kumar was sworn in as CM for the fourth consecutive term yesterday with his party JDU able to secure only the third position. No doubt, he is flanked by two BJP Deputy Chief Ministers. And the inconsolable bitterness of the single largest party continues…

Bihar Elections-2020: Was Chirag Paswan BJP’s Conscious Strategy?

 

Defying all exit polls, the BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) came back to power with a simple majority in the closely fought Bihar Assembly Elections-2020, giving the fourth consecutive CM-term and fifth overall to Nitish Kumar. All of the exit polls gave simple to two-third majority to the MGB (Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance) led by the young energetic face of Bihar, Tejaswi Yadav, son of the Bihar stalwart and former Chief Minister for three terms, Laloo Prasad Yadav, who had been in jail since a long time on corruption cases, and predicted Tejaswi to be the next CM. One or two exit polls indicated, in the worst scenario, a hung assembly.

 

Various reasons have been ascribed for the incredible comeback of the NDA against all odds. The primary reasons are: the continuing influence of the Modi-factor, the 12 crucial rallies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Bihar where he warned people against falling for the ‘Jungle Reign’ of the RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) led by Laloo and family, a majority of the women voters favoring Modi and the NDA, and that Asaduddin Owaisi, MP and President of AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen), deciding to contest on its own in all the Muslim-dominated regions of the state, and thus weaning away crucial votes that RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) and the Congress were expected to garner for the MGB.

 

However, the most crucial factor or the so-called X-factor had been the pre-poll acrobatics of the Lok Janshakti Dal (LJP which was formed in 2000 by Ram Vilas Paswan) led by Member of Parliament Chirag Paswan, son of another stalwart of Bihar politics, Ram Vilas Paswan, who had been a central minister for the NDA government in India and unfortunately died on 8^th October this year. He also served as a minister in the UPA government earlier under former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. When Ram Vilas was alive in the first week of October the LJP left the NDA in Bihar saying that they did not want to fight elections under Nitish Kumar, and would continue to support BJP fighting on its own. So, the LJP went ahead contesting as many as 143 seats in the 243-seat Bihar legislative assembly.

 

After the demise of Ram Vilas, Chirag had been consistently opposing the leadership of Nitish Kumar and saying that they would be devoted to Modi and BJP and would form a government with the BJP in a new alliance. So, a situation emerged where a party not in the time-tested BJP alliance led a campaign against an integral NDA partner while vowing all the support for the BJP. And the BJP leadership kept mum all the time on Chirag utterances and deeds. This politically-unique Chirag-factor has been discussed and analyzed by various political experts all the while; but since the absurd situation made my head break at times, I decided to write about it.

 

It is not at all practical to assume that the BJP think-tank was not aware of the strong anti-incumbency wave against three-term-CM Nitish Kumar and open public anger for his mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic and the migrant workers of the state. The party leadership must have thought about it, and after much brainstorming must have approved the Chirag factor. There were obvious reasons why this strategy would work:

v This was sure to improve the acceptability of the BJP as it in a way joined the voters in their wrath against the serving Chief Minister;

v BJP has been known to playing as a Big Brother in any alliance in states, and this strategy would either eliminate Nitish’s JDU (Janata Dal-United) from the alliance entirely or would reduce its numbers drastically making its influence much weaker;

v Even if the probability of forming a BJP-LJP government in Bihar was far remote, the Chirag-factor would at least contribute as a vote-cutter, mostly affecting the JDU candidates and also for the RJD and other partners of the MGB like the Congress and the Left; and

v This strategy can also be seen as an effective counter against the surging young leader Tejaswi putting up another energetic young promising leader in the guise of Chirag.

Now, after the results were finally declared in the wee hours of 11^th November the following benefits to the BJP were apparent:

vBJP’s tally of seats increased remarkably to 74, almost making it the singe largest party in the assembly;

vAs was anticipated, JDU’s seats got hit to the extent of a loss of 28 seats, effectively making it the junior partner in the alliance;

vAs the margins of victories in the suspense-thriller of an election were very thin the Chirag vote-cutting visibly harmed the prospects of RJD and the Congress primarily, in many crucial assembly constituencies; and

vEven though the LJP finally managed to win only one seat it has emerged strongly as an ally for the BJP in future.

Of course, the strategy had its elements or risks that Nitish Kumar would decide to feel insulted and humiliated by the actions of non-NDA Chirag Paswan, and would walk out of the alliance post-poll which eventuality would have made the situation ripe for a Maharashtra-like twist. Therefore, the BJP always maintained that JDU had been an integral part of the NDA and Nitish Kumar was always the Chief Minister candidate. After declaration of the results the BJP has again reiterated the fifth term for Nitish. In the event of a BJP-LJP majority Nitish would have definitely been out even as Nitish said, emotionally and also significantly, in his last rally that it was going to be his last election.

 

How effectively the NDA alliance in Bihar works in the coming months and years is to be observed and seen. MGB has emerged as a great force in the state with 110 seats, and it will not be an easy ride for the NDA at 125 seats. Creating more and more jobs and tackling the migrant workers expertly would be the acid test for the new government, and the MGB won many hearts in Bihar with its focus on creation of jobs. In an expected move today, the Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, while announcing another pandemic-stimulus package listed out a plethora of measures for job creation across the country.