Heat Wave In India: The Hits And More Heats Of The Heat!

The Indian summer begins from around the end of March and temperatures start soaring reaching the peak in the month of May in the range of 40 to 47/48 degree Celsius in most parts of North, North-Western and Central regions. This year, 2022, however, the heat began from the second part of March and temperatures soared to much above normal by mid-April reaching the forties. Immediately thereafter, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had declared heat wave conditions and then orange alert in various parts of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand. Normally, heat wave conditions are declared when temperatures cross the 40℃ mark and orange alert as the 45℃ is crossed. The capital city Delhi has been in heat wave conditions for the last fortnight and on Friday, the 29^th of April, the mercury has crossed 46.4℃ making this month the hottest ever April in the capital in 72 years. As per the IMD data this April could very well be the hottest ever April in history in India. The IMD has, of course, hinted at a respite predicting rains/thunder showers in the North-Western belt after 2^nd May.  But what is store after that in the usually hottest month of May? There is an ominous prediction from the IMD that the mercury could reach 50℃ in Rajasthan and probably in the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra too. We must brace for the worst even as there have some other grim additional hits and heats of the heat.

 

The first major hit-of-the-heat is emanating from the extreme coal shortage in the country. States like Maharashtra and others have already had power outages as the thermal plants are running out of coal. The hit is further heightened by the Government of Maharashtra’s allegation that the central Government is deliberately cutting off supply of coal as this state is ruled by a non-BJP coalition. This allegation is not at all helped by the Union Coal Ministry’s assurance that the country has enough supply of coal to sail through the crisis, because many other states are also facing the heat of this hit. The Indian Railways have cancelled more than 700 trips involving 42 passenger trains to prioritize the smooth movement of the coal rakes. So, the question arises as to how this crisis is allowed to happen considering the obvious fact that demand for power was bound to soar after the two-year pandemic slump as all COVID-related restrictions were lifted from March onward, apart from the other more obvious fact that demand for power reaches its peak during the months of April and Many even otherwise every year.

 

According to an IndianExpress report, 108 of India’s 173 coal-fired thermal plants have critically low levels of coal supply and that around 75% of the country’s power requirements come from coal-fired thermal plants with the Railways being the main transporter of the black gold. The report says further that many thermal plants dependent on imported coal have stopped generation of power due to increasing international prices of coal. Referring to experts the report sends a warning that this crisis could get even worse in the monsoon season as during that period coal transportation is negatively impacted by weather conditions and the thermal plants have very little buffer of coal at the moment.

 

The poor on the streets, the workers who have to come out every day for survival, the lower middle classes boxed in the congested society or chawl or slum flats/hutments of the urban areas and the farmers on the fields will have to bear the worst hits. Not to speak of the surging electricity bills combined with the ever-increasing prices of petrol, diesel and cooking gas. Their inhuman conditions are not at all helped by the unfortunate occurrences of even more heats of the third kind. In Maharashtra, the MNS leader Raj Thackeray is hitting only at the common people by creating a provocative environment involving the Hanuman Chalisa and the Azaan. In Karnataka, the heats are ever flowing: from the hijab dress-code to the halal-meat controversies; the Azaan loudspeakers; and then expanding the heat on to the Bible. Whatever must have happened in Punjab is also very unfortunate. The only pleasant surprise is coming from Uttar Pradesh with its Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, elected for his second term only recently, removing all the illegal loudspeakers and reducing the decibel-limits of the other ones from all places of worship, irrespective of religions.

 

When the citizens of the country are suffering from the relentless heat, obviously a result of the global warming, the governments should focus more on how to provide them with some much-needed relief rather than resorting to more and more load shedding and scoring political brownie points at the sole expense of the common struggling citizens. Even the IPL-2022 is being adversely affected by the heat with the batsmen running dehydrated and struggling to score totals of just about 150 or so. Only the advertisements or the commercials are very cool indeed, with everyone featuring in them dancing in wild celebration of what we know not.

Assembly Elections-2022 Results: BJP Set To Win The Semi-Finals 4-1, A Decimated Congress Confirmed As The Cause Of Split Opposition!

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has created history in the volatile state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), interspersed with President’s Rule on many an occasion over the past decades, by overriding the anti-incumbency factor that has been in operation in the last 25 years to retain power, and Yogi Adityanath is set to become the first ever Chief Minister of UP to have two consecutive terms. Although the election battle in the state had been fought with open polarization tactics with the Hindutva campaign in full flow the victory with a comfortable majority is still an unprecedented achievement in light of the hurdles of the last two years—the woes of the migrant workers in the COVID-19 pandemic first wave; the abysmal management in the COVID-19 second wave with the rain of deaths and bodies floating the river Ganga; the farmers’ agitation and violence; the uncontrollably high unemployment rate; and the palpable anger of the citizens felt on almost every locality of the state.

 

As per the latest figures the BJP is heading for around 270 seats out of a total of 403 even as the counting for the assembly elections in 5 Indian states continue, although not able to accomplish the 300+ seats target this time as achieved in the last elections. Now the BJP has two paramount winners—PM Modi and Yogi—and the future is surely going to hang on the performances and the magnetism of these leaders. It is believed that the results of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections always have a direct impact on the outcome of the General Elections thanks to its 80 Lok Sabha (lower house of the Indian Parliament) seats as the largest state of India. Therefore, as per that belief the ruling BJP seems set to perform a hat-trick in the 2024 General Elections.

 

The other major highlight of the Assembly Elections-2022 results is the landslide victory for the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) winning an overwhelming 92 seats out of 117 seats in the Punjab assembly elections as per the latest reports. This is like a dream-come-true for the Delhi CM Kejriwal who has been trying extremely hard to build a national presence of his party AAP, and now he has been able to extend it beyond Delhi, to an important state of Punjab. He had announced Bhagwant Singh Mann, AAP’s sitting Lok Sabha MP as the CM-face well before the polls, and the popular actor-comedian has won hands down with a victory margin of over 58000 votes.

 

The people of Punjab, bearing the brunt of the farmers’ agitation and the consequent wrath of the central government, were left clueless by the classic personal feud between the two Congress Sardars—the erstwhile CM Capt. Amrinder Singh and the cricketer-comedian-politician Navjot Singh Sidhu and the spineless conduct of their regional parties—and have wholeheartedly welcomed the populist model of Kejriwal already tried successfully in Delhi despite the ruling BJP breathing heavily over his shoulders. The captain, dismayed at the betrayal by the Congress high command, formed a new party and fought the elections in alliance with the BJP; but he failed miserably to create an impact. Both Amrinder and Sidhu lost their seats among many other stalwarts, such is the sweeping wave for change.

 

The BJP has eliminated the Congress in the states of Uttarakhand and Manipur retaining power clear majority apart from Uttar Pradesh; in Manipur the BJP is going to form the government on its own for the first time. The situation in Goa is still tricky even though BJP seems to inching its way to a simple majority. In light of its previous stunt of grabbing power despite Congress being the single largest party in 2017, it is almost certain that BJP would retain power again having 20 seats out of 40 already. The results are so far based on leads/trends; nevertheless, the leads seem to be conclusive as victory marches in various cities hit the streets.

 

The BJP thinktank’s much-touted slogan of a ‘Congress mukt Bharat’ (Congress-free India) comes as a political masterstroke at this juncture. The thinktank knew very well that Congress being the oldest and the longest-ruling political party of India no united opposition can be viable without its inclusion. And in every election the party has been decimated and demoralized to such an extent that it has now become a clear liability for any aspiring opposition to stop the BJP, the Maharashtra model being the only exception. The dynastic pattern of the Congress has also been targeted repeatedly with a clear objective. Slowly over time, dissidence and defections grew within Congress with many of its promising leaders leaving the party and all other opposition parties became wary of the fact that once an alliance is formed with Congress, the latter’s dynastic leaders would have to made CM or PM faces which the ambitious regional leaders like Mamata Banerjee and Kejriwal cannot ever agree to. Add to that the BJP’s tireless wooing of the regional parties in various states.  

 

So, we’ve seen split oppositions in all the five states that made the BJP retain power in 4 and the AAP in 1 state. This way, the road is very clear indeed to another landslide by BJP in the General Elections-2024. By continuously decimating the Congress the BJP seems to have succeeded in eliminating a united opposition in the largest democracy of the world. Unfortunately, the process thus unfolded has sort of legitimatized the use of polarization and mixing religion with politics, the increasing loss of the true values of secularism, growing assaults on the democratic institutions and constitutional authority, and the spewing of venom and hatred between communities all over the country that is set to go on infecting us nobody knows for how long.

 

A few Congress spokespersons have no other option but to admit in television interviews that their party’s antics in Punjab just four-five months before the elections were extremely uncalled for. The party High Command has, for reasons unknown, totally yielded to the comedian’s never-ending demands making him party president, ousting a performing CM Captain Amrinder Singh, installing the comedian’s protégé as the new CM Charanjit Singh Channi who incidentally has lost both the seats he contested as per the latest reports and giving the comedian all the power as he feels like in running the government or the election campaign. Other dissident but very experienced Congress veterans have also said that the Gandhi (read dynastic) leadership has outlived its relevance. It is also a quirk of nature that another actor-comedian has come in to replace the black comedian to make the people of Punjab feel better, hopefully!

Assembly Election Dates Announced By The ECI: Step Aside, Omicron!

The Election Commission of India (ECI) has today, a day when the country logged 1,41,986 new COVID-19 cases, announced the dates for assembly elections in 5 states of India, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa, starting from February 10, 2022. The polling in all five states will be completed between 10^th February and 7^th March in seven phases while the counting is to take place on 10^th March for all five states. UP election will be spread over all the seven phases till 7^th March; Uttarakhand, Punjab and Goa will have single phase polls on 14^th February; and Manipur will have two-phase polling due to security concerns in the state on 27^thFebruary and March 3, 2022. More than 180 million citizens are set to exercise their voting rights during this what is often referred as festival of democracy.

 

The Chief Election Commissioner (CEC), Sushil Chandra, assured while addressing a press conference in the national capital Delhi that the elections would be fully COVID-19 safe for all stakeholders—the authorities, the polling officials and the voters. He said that the ECI has held consultations with the concerned authorities in all the states taking stock of the situation and asked them to ramp up vaccination to have all the voters fully vaccinated by next month.  The polling officials will be given the double doses and the booster dose too as far as possible. The voting hours have also been increased by an hour.

 

The CEC further said that the number of polling stations and booths has been jacked up for easy and safe polling with the number of voters per polling booth being reduced from 1500 to 1250. All COVID appropriate measures will be enforced in all polling stations with masks, sanitizers made available there, he added. Asked about the exponential Omicron spread across the country Chandra quickly pointed out that elections are not taking place in the worst affected states like Maharashtra, West Bengal and Delhi. However, he assured, that the ECI will keep on monitoring the situations in all the poll-bound states and adopt measures as necessary.

 

The biggest positive point about the ECI briefing is that all political rallies, roadshows and processions of any sort are banned till January 15, 2022, after which the Commission would review the situation for further action, and that there shall be no victory marches after counting. The normal regulation declared during the assembly elections amid the second wave last year will continue which is that there will no rallies or gatherings of any kind from 8 pm to 8 am daily till the end of the poll schedule. Secondly, the 80+ senior citizens and COVID positive patients can vote through the postal ballots from their homes where the ECI teams would supervise. The logistics for this operation could become unmanageable depending on the situation of active cases in the concerned states. Thirdly, candidates from all parties will have to declare their criminal records publicly on newspapers and news channels and their respective political parties would require to furnish reasons to the ECI as to why tickets are given to such candidates. If implemented without government interference this may result in a most positive development to a persistent issue.

 

Another provision could’ve been a positive takeaway had the ECI made it mandatory to file nominations online. But unfortunately, the ECI has made this mode of filing nomination only optional. The CEC Sushil Chandra also said that any delay in holding the elections would’ve been undemocratic. Well, the love for democracy in our country is becoming quite selective nowadays. During the elections held last year amid the raging second wave when the vaccination was not at all adequate, a large number of polling officials and other frontline officials succumbed to COVID-19 infections. Perhaps, they all sacrificed their lives for this love for democracy. Nevertheless, this time the ECI has shown some promising moves and it’d all depend on how much guts it has to implement all these.

 

About the Omicron-led COVID-19 situation in the country it seems certain now that all the governments/authorities have accepted gratefully that Omicron is a mild virus and cannot cause any medical needs in the fully vaccinated citizens. Many states have pointed out that most medical admissions, that too not serious, have been of that of the unvaccinated while some cities boast that there has not been a single ICU case. Well, with the hospital beds still empty, medical oxygen in full supply and jabs in full swing plus booster doses already starting, they can legitimately be complacent and boast. 

No wonder, the sate of Maharashtra that registered more than 40,000 new cases in the last 24 hours, is still sitting pretty and contented. We fervently hope that they are indeed doing the right thing and that the Omicron scare disappear soon and the warnings of the supreme health authority, WHO, prove totally unwarranted. In any case, why to blame the elections only while religious festivals like the Ganga Sagar Melain West Bengal being allowed where millions of devotees across the country are taking holy dips, like they did during the Kumbh Mela last year in the peak of the second wave.

India: A Notorious Gangster Eliminated And Doubting Thomases!

It has been observed throughout the world at various times that when a criminal kills a cop the case assumes an altogether different dimension, and the elimination of the said criminal becomes a priority—by any means. Whatever connections or clout the criminal might be having with politicians or influential persons or even the police become secondary, irrespective of the elections the criminal might have fought and won with tickets of whatever political party. In the case of Vikas Dubey, a notorious criminal of Uttar Pradesh in India since the early nineties, as many as eight cops were killed on the 3^rd of July 2020 when a police party went to arrest him in Kanpur, and the police party was reportedly ambushed by Dubey’s goons, supposedly on a tip-off from inside the police, resulting in the brutal killings of eight policemen including a DSP (Dy. Superintendent of Police). The fate of the gangster was sealed then and there, and his elimination was only a matter of time.

The first crime against Vikas Dubey or Vikas Pandit was registered in the early 90s and over the decades more than 60 criminal cases were registered including murders, particularly of a minister of state in 2001. Several times he got arrested during the period up to 2017, but due to his political connections he got acquitted all the time. Yet, he remained a most wanted criminal in the state.

Now, it is a common fact in India that every political party in existence here is used to maintain private armies consisting of goons on direct payroll for the dirty work like arm-twisting rival businessmen or rival political leaders or garnering votes by intimidation during elections. Every locality, particularly crucial ones, of the northern states of the country has a ‘Bahubali’ (Strongman) who reigns in the area like a parallel government. SuchBahubalis are recruited by various political parties and at times, through negotiations areas get assigned to a particular strongman of a particular political party. They even have moles in the state police forces. The point being made here is that the allegation of a political nexus of a criminal cannot be made only against a particular political party, because in the case of Dubey he had been enjoying political patronage of various ruling parties over the decades. A huge quantity of movies and television films have been made on this ‘Bahubalinexus’, and we have to admit that some reality has to be there to justify so many reel-works including a few artistically serious projects.

After the July 3^rd escape Vikas Dubey roamed free for six days traveling through four states and finally landing up in Madhya Pradesh. On the morning of 9^th July 2020, the dreaded gangster visited a most famous temple of the city of Ujjain to offer prayers. A shopkeeper selling flowers recognized him and tipped off the temple security. On interrogation by temple security men the criminal became violent following which the security called the police. The police came immediately and marched him off to the local station, and in the afternoon handed him over to Uttar Pradesh police. There had been allegations by opposition political parties and the media of a ruling party nexus that created an intelligence failure and allowed the criminal travel undetected. However, in view of his links with various political parties and his ‘friends’ even in the state police force we cannot be too sure on the veracity of such allegations.

The doubting Thomases became berserk. Although the media had been criticizing the government relentlessly over the six-day ‘intelligence failure’ this action, supposedly a success, did not get any thumbs-up from them, but only created more doubts for them: had this been a ‘staged arrest’ or a ‘meek surrender’! Debates raged over this throughout that day and night. Nobody seemed to remember that the criminal killed eight cops, and that after that why would he surrender only to get encountered!

As was inevitable, early morning on the 10^th of July 2020, the dreaded gangster was killed in an encounter while he was transported to Kanpur in a police convoy. The police gave their version of having to kill him since he managed to snatch a gun from one of the policemen and tried to fire at them trying to escape. The doubting Thomases in the opposition political parties and the media again became berserk criticizing the police for a ‘staged encounter’ or an extra-judicial killing. From a logical point of view the opposition has no business to criticize another political party because of the simple reason that Vikas Dubey enjoyed political patronage from almost all the parties considering his ‘career’ over the decades. That the society has been freed from a dangerous criminal failed to get any attention from them. Of course, it is not considerate or even safe to support extra-judicial killings in a democracy; but exceptions must be considered in view of the circumstances like those brutal killer-rapists eliminated in a similar fashion in Hyderabad in 2019.

Ideally, we feel criminal-politician-police nexus must end as soon as possible. However, it is highly unrealistic to expect any change in the time-tested doctrines and ways of the largest democracy of the world in near future. Influence, clout and corruption go hand in hand in a democracy like India. Even the biggest ever crisis faced by humanity, the COVID-19 pandemic, has not yet been capable of uniting the country in its fight against the killer virus. Here too, tragically, the doubting Thomases are seeing a ‘scam sold to the world by the Chinese’ conspiracy angle! And, whenever elections are around everything falls into a set pattern, unfortunately, generating more redundant debates. 

General Elections-2014: Overwhelming Public Mandate For A New Government!

Perhaps only one of those exit polls ventured out giving around 340 Lok Sabha seats for the BJP led NDA and a number in excess of simple majority for BJP on its own. In the most emphatic mandate since 1984 that exit poll proved to be the most accurate one. On the counting day yesterday that saw India glued to television sets, almost empty streets and offices and live-wire packed newsrooms Indian citizens proved why democracy is still the raging spirit in this country. They did not mince words or showed any waywardness. They rejected the incumbent government and brought in a new government in all democratic glory. All small political parties including Arvind Kejriwal’s much talked about AAP could not even give a fight. It was a clear choice for BJP alliance rejecting the Congress alliance. Only in states like Tamil Nadu and West Bengal the regional parties continued to hold sway with Jayalalitha and Mamata Bannerji sweeping the polls promising strong opposition groups in the Indian Parliament. However, they are denied like all other power mongers waiting for a situation where BJP would need support to achieve the magic number of 272 in a 543-member Lok Sabha of having any horse-trading or manipulative hands in the formation of the new government. The Congress party got reduced to its worst ever performance since independence with a paltry 44 seats while the UPA got just 60, unable even to sit on the opposition effectively.

After noon yesterday trends started revealing the inkling of an overwhelming victory for the BJP under the aggressive leadership of Narendra Modi—the next Prime Minister in the new government to be formed shortly. The BJP led alliance, NDA, cruised to 336 seats while BJP got 282 technically allowing it to form a government on its own. If you leave out Gujarat as Modi’s state then you must take note of the spectacular performances of BJP in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan and of the BJP led alliance in Maharashtra.  Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra do stand out, because in the former the BJP overcame the Mulayam Singh Yadav led Samajwadi Party and the Mayawati led BSP capturing 73 of the 80 seats and in the latter in its alliance with Shiv Sena, Republican Party of India and farmers’ political parties BJP scripted the incredible defeats of some of the most dominant Congress and NCP leaders of Maharashtra including central and state cabinet ministers. BJP got 23, Shiv Sena 18 and Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghtana 1, thus capturing 42 of total 48 seats. It has been a significant comeback for Shiv Sena that had been sort of languishing after the demise of its father figure Balasaheb Thackeray and due to leadership issues and continuous attacks by its breakaway party Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. Shiv Sena is now rejuvenated and set for the potent future with Assembly Elections due in October this year in Maharashtra. The coming Assembly Elections will be the biggest challenge for the staggering ruling combine led by Congress.

And of course, Mumbai. As you know Mumbai hit its second half-century in 25 years this General Elections when it voted in excess of fifty percent. That was supposed to be a wave and we explained it in detailsfor you recently. Indeed, it was such a wave that the saffron alliance (BJP-Shiv Sena) swept the city winning all six seats. Standing, outstanding and traditional candidates just lost and lost by huge margins—another trend visible nationally as BJP or its partner parties won with margins of hundred thousand or more. The all-time record of the biggest win margin was made by none other than the next Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi when he defeated his Congress rival by over 5,70,000 votes in his home state Gujarat.

With the new government in place it will be hardly easy for BJP and partners to rule India. They have to perform on issues like corruption, inflation, economic policies, foreign policy relating mainly to Pakistan and so on. In the role of the national opposition BJP had been attacking, harassing, cornering the ruling coalition and stalling Parliament most of the time. Then there is the ‘fear factor’ associated with the BJP or Modi Government. They will also have to overcome the fears of the minorities who are suspicious of their religiously aggressive Hindutva, communality and polarization. Would-be Prime Minister Narendra Modi must take all these into account and must continue to respect peoples’ overwhelming faith in his leadership.Today Modi flew to New Delhi to attend BJP's Parliamentary Board meeting. Then he visited his second constituency Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh where he defeated Arvind Kejriwal by a huge margin.

President Obama talked to Modi over phone inviting him to visit the US. Many other countries including France expressed willingness to associate with the new Indian government closely. International media gave wide coverage to BJP and Modi’s thumping victory.  Meanwhile the outgoing Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh has tendered his resignation to the President of India today after giving his farewell speech. The Parliamentary Party of the BJP is going to meet in the capital on Tuesday, the 20^th of May to formally elect Narendra Modi as their leader and the next Prime Minister of India.