Maharashtra Assembly Elections-2014: Anybody’s Game!

Even the end of Pitru Paksha fortnight which is considered inauspicious on 24^thSeptember could not inspire the great politicians of Maharashtra to come together and be sincere to voters. They fought between themselves with greed for power being the driving force and things came to such a head that the raging anti-incumbency wave became a joke giving the earnest voters the biggest dilemma in their so-far-so-good democratic existence. Now, whoever they vote for would hardly decide who would finally form the government. In every constituency the voters will have at least five main candidates contesting (Congress, Nationalist Congress Party or NCP, Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP, Shiv Sena and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena or MNS and any of them could win in view of the split vote syndrome. There are still more political parties who could be big factors on specific areas. 

As the fortnight of the Goddess Durga began things happened in a great hurry putting this poor writer in a hyperactive flurry and making him unable to carry on with his wordy curry. Still, he hardly has the time to ponder, wonder and render. So then, only a quick look-through on the main events for some of the loyal readers of these pages. 

September 25, The Maha Break-Up: Maha of the Maharashtra also means big and it was big indeed on this eventful day.  Mahayuti (Yutimeans pair, when it became more than two it is mahayuti) has been riding on the anti-incumbency wave for the last about one year and more political parties joined in to be on the winning side. The alliance had swept Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra and when it was almost certain to be voted in overwhelmingly in the Assembly Elections they broke up reportedly fighting over sharing just 4 or 5 seats either way. Anybody could see the basic reason though. Since they were sure to win the question of who gets the supreme seat of power, Chief Ministership, became overpowering and finally they could not decide. So the BJP and the Shiv Sena ended their 25-year-old alliance making their small allies scurry around for shelter.

On the same eventful day one more much perplexing break-up occurred. Here you cannot put the finger on the right spot. The ruling alliance had apparently no chance of coming back to power and yet they fought over seat sharing. More ridiculously one ally offered to share the post of the Chief Minister equally for two and half years each after coming back to power. Maybe the powerful local leaders just thought of retaining at least that much power of continuing to be the elected representative. So the Congress and the NCP ended their 15-year-old alliance. Not only that, the NCP withdrew support making the Congress a minority in the Maharashtra Assembly. 

September 25-27: Almost no major political party had their list of candidates out and the last date of filing nominations was 27^th September. So followed the most chaotic and ludicrous process of filing nominations. Candidates filed once, twice or even thrice as they did not know finally which side they would end up. Political party bosses did not know about which member of theirs filed where. Someone of some political party filed nomination and did not finally manage a ticket, and so s/he filed again from a different party hoping to get a ticket this time. This unprecedented chaos and mockery of democracy is likely to regain some sense only after 1^st October—the last date for withdrawal nominations. In the process the exodus from the NCP to either BJP or Shiv Sean has been the biggest.  

September 26: Chief Minister of Maharashtra Prithviraj Chavan resigned as his government was reduced to a minority after the NCP withdrew support post break-up. The BJP raised the demand for imposing President’s Rule in the state with just about 20 days left for polling. 

September 27: Governor of Maharashtra accepted the resignation of Prithviraj Chavan and sends his report to the Centre for President’s rule in the state. Union Cabinet recommends clamping President’s rule. 

September 28: Pranab Mukherjee, the President of India, signs the proclamation for imposition of President’s Rule in the poll-bound state of Maharashtra. Congress objects to the decision. 

Of course, you must vote, this is your most precious democratic right and you must inspire others to do so. In all, this Maharashtra Assembly Elections-2014 is going to be the most remembered state assembly election of the century. All for the wrong reasons. Much more yet to come.

Politics of Seat Sharing: Irony of Ironies!

Normally in a democracy, India in particular, the numbers become all important after the results of elections are out. This in terms of one particular political party or alliance falling short of the majority number or in the extreme case of a hung verdict that requires desperate number measures. But for Maharashtra Assembly Elections-2014 the numbers have become all important even before a candidate of the major political parties happened to file a nomination. The numbers being rolled out, negotiated, debated and bargained are just not proving to be right for anyone. 

While almost everybody has given the BJP-Shiv Sena (Mahayuti) alliance a green signal for its best ever chance to coming to power in Maharashtra the two parties have failed so far to arrive at the right seat sharing formula. The Shiv Sena has decided to fight not less than 150 seats of the 288-seat house and the BJP after its overwhelming success in the General Elections wants much more than the 119 seats it had in 2009 assembly elections. If the Shiv Sena had realized that it got a new lease of life after the Modi wave in Lok Sabha elections and perhaps might have prepared for adjustments the losses suffered by the BJP in the recent by polls  gave the party a new platform to bargain with a somewhat embarrassed BJP. While maintaininfg that by poll results are insignificant the BJP never wants to let go of the Lok Sabha advantage. Apart from the basic Chief Ministerial issue between the two it has been a battle of superegos of the top leaders as all of them see their best chance this time. But ironically, they are depriving prospective voters who could have wanted an alternative after 15 years. Now even the minor partners of Mahayuti are threatening to leave the alliance. 

Congress and Nationalist Congress Party

Despite suffering heavy losses and charting out their worst ever performance in the General Elections-2014 the ruling Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance in Maharashtra instead of learning from the experience and trying to regroup is fighting as hard for equitable seat sharing. The Congress wants to stick to the formula tried in last elections, but the NCP wants equal share—144 seats each out of 288. As if both parties have sensed some divine signal that they are poised for a resounding victory this time too despite the palpable anti-incumbency mood. Well, anything is possible in a democracy or in India! However, it is ironical no doubt. 

The voters could find themselves at a disadvantage with the elections possibly becoming an at least four cornered contest in the eventuality of all four major political parties fighting it alone. The vote split implied by such a situation could make anybody come to power. While single party majority is considered impossible in the present circumstances the most feared post-poll coalitions with the usual bargaining and horse trading could make the confusion confounding. 

Pitru Pakshais going to end on 24^th September. Maybe still a chance for alliances and the right numbers for seat sharing after that? You never know with politics as the last date of filing of nominations is looming large on 27^thof September.

Politics Of Corruption: AAP Wants Kejriwal To Be CM Again!

Arvind Kejriwal's ambitions were rooted to the popularity and the national appeal of the anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare. Utilizing his proximity to Anna he formed his own political entity Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and  decided it was time to part ways with his 'mentor' as the great idealistic campaigner never wanted to have anything to do with political parties. When Kejriwal was given a stunning mandate by the people in Delhi he took it as a verdict for his party and his ambitions partially fulfilled Kejriwal and his party indulged in all sorts of politicking that any political party is capable of. He did not want to accept that people in fact wanted a corruption free government and voted for a government that could ensure a solution for this burning issue of the Indian way of life. With power and popularity peaking Kejriwal did all possible under the sun to create and maintain the hype around him. 

Like a person possessed by ambition Kejriwal looked ahead to further his success after the Delhi Assembly poll. He kept his sight on the coming Lok Sabha Elections and thought a person like him could not possibly waste his time being a mere Chief Minister while the post of the Prime Minister seemed to beckon to him constantly. His AAP had already decided to contest in 400 out of the 543 Lok Sabha seats. Therefore Kejriwal decided to quit as Chief Minister and after 49 days in power let his government fall citing a whole lot of flimsy reasons. He conveniently forgot that his party betrayed his voters absolutely and made the fatal mistake of taking voters for granted. He even did not like the idea of the BJP trying to form a government in his place and so moved the Supreme Court seeking immediate dissolution of the Delhi Assembly. 

We have already told you what happened in the General Elections-2014. Apart from Kejriwal losing to Narendra Modi in Varanasi his AAP fared miserably everywhere except for the state Punjab where it managed to get 4 seats. In Delhi AAP could not get a single seat coming second to the winning BJP candidates in only three constituencies while coming on top only in 10 Assembly segments out of a total of 70 segments. People of Delhi rejected AAP in no uncertain terms and like the national trend brought in the BJP in all of the 7 seats of Delhi. At the moment Arvind Kejriwal and his party have nothing to do to stay on in media limelight. 

So then in a party meet top leaders some members of AAP mooted a proposal that Kejriwal try form a government in Delhi again and naturally take over as Chief Minister. Kejriwal was also present in the meeting and reportedly did not comment. Around twenty AAP members were in favor of this and they represent a typical political behavior. They cannot afford to stay starved of political power and clout, and so would like to grab that by hook or by crook. The so-called anti-corruption activists have come a full ironic circle now. What they are doing or trying to do now is moral corruption and India Against Corruption must take note of this. The Fight Against Corruption must now be directed against the very people who took advantage of the movement to grab political power and not having their plate full would like to devour some more. 

And to whose support they are looking for now? After receiving an overwhelming public mandate BJP would have no business of supporting some opportunists, and the party had already stated that it was for fresh elections in Delhi. Are they then looking forward to getting support again from Congress--a party so utterly rejected and bitterly dejected? Fittingly AAP got snubbed from Congress too as the party said clearly that it did not want to support again and would like to have fresh elections despite its present miserable condition. Kejriwal blossomed his political career by attacking the Congress endlessly and now he must pay heed to the same party when it tells him that he has no moral authority to try form a government in Delhi again. Anna Hazare was dead right when almost two years back he set some essential qualifications for a person wanting to fight corruption.

PS: AAP tweeted later today that some media are resorting to spreading rumors and that there was no question of forming a government again in Delhi because AAP wanted reelection in the first place.  Well, it will definitely prevent loss of sleep for many AAP loyalists! For the moment, of course! 

General Elections-2014: Overwhelming Public Mandate For A New Government!

Perhaps only one of those exit polls ventured out giving around 340 Lok Sabha seats for the BJP led NDA and a number in excess of simple majority for BJP on its own. In the most emphatic mandate since 1984 that exit poll proved to be the most accurate one. On the counting day yesterday that saw India glued to television sets, almost empty streets and offices and live-wire packed newsrooms Indian citizens proved why democracy is still the raging spirit in this country. They did not mince words or showed any waywardness. They rejected the incumbent government and brought in a new government in all democratic glory. All small political parties including Arvind Kejriwal’s much talked about AAP could not even give a fight. It was a clear choice for BJP alliance rejecting the Congress alliance. Only in states like Tamil Nadu and West Bengal the regional parties continued to hold sway with Jayalalitha and Mamata Bannerji sweeping the polls promising strong opposition groups in the Indian Parliament. However, they are denied like all other power mongers waiting for a situation where BJP would need support to achieve the magic number of 272 in a 543-member Lok Sabha of having any horse-trading or manipulative hands in the formation of the new government. The Congress party got reduced to its worst ever performance since independence with a paltry 44 seats while the UPA got just 60, unable even to sit on the opposition effectively.

After noon yesterday trends started revealing the inkling of an overwhelming victory for the BJP under the aggressive leadership of Narendra Modi—the next Prime Minister in the new government to be formed shortly. The BJP led alliance, NDA, cruised to 336 seats while BJP got 282 technically allowing it to form a government on its own. If you leave out Gujarat as Modi’s state then you must take note of the spectacular performances of BJP in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan and of the BJP led alliance in Maharashtra.  Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra do stand out, because in the former the BJP overcame the Mulayam Singh Yadav led Samajwadi Party and the Mayawati led BSP capturing 73 of the 80 seats and in the latter in its alliance with Shiv Sena, Republican Party of India and farmers’ political parties BJP scripted the incredible defeats of some of the most dominant Congress and NCP leaders of Maharashtra including central and state cabinet ministers. BJP got 23, Shiv Sena 18 and Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghtana 1, thus capturing 42 of total 48 seats. It has been a significant comeback for Shiv Sena that had been sort of languishing after the demise of its father figure Balasaheb Thackeray and due to leadership issues and continuous attacks by its breakaway party Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. Shiv Sena is now rejuvenated and set for the potent future with Assembly Elections due in October this year in Maharashtra. The coming Assembly Elections will be the biggest challenge for the staggering ruling combine led by Congress.

And of course, Mumbai. As you know Mumbai hit its second half-century in 25 years this General Elections when it voted in excess of fifty percent. That was supposed to be a wave and we explained it in detailsfor you recently. Indeed, it was such a wave that the saffron alliance (BJP-Shiv Sena) swept the city winning all six seats. Standing, outstanding and traditional candidates just lost and lost by huge margins—another trend visible nationally as BJP or its partner parties won with margins of hundred thousand or more. The all-time record of the biggest win margin was made by none other than the next Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi when he defeated his Congress rival by over 5,70,000 votes in his home state Gujarat.

With the new government in place it will be hardly easy for BJP and partners to rule India. They have to perform on issues like corruption, inflation, economic policies, foreign policy relating mainly to Pakistan and so on. In the role of the national opposition BJP had been attacking, harassing, cornering the ruling coalition and stalling Parliament most of the time. Then there is the ‘fear factor’ associated with the BJP or Modi Government. They will also have to overcome the fears of the minorities who are suspicious of their religiously aggressive Hindutva, communality and polarization. Would-be Prime Minister Narendra Modi must take all these into account and must continue to respect peoples’ overwhelming faith in his leadership.Today Modi flew to New Delhi to attend BJP's Parliamentary Board meeting. Then he visited his second constituency Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh where he defeated Arvind Kejriwal by a huge margin.

President Obama talked to Modi over phone inviting him to visit the US. Many other countries including France expressed willingness to associate with the new Indian government closely. International media gave wide coverage to BJP and Modi’s thumping victory.  Meanwhile the outgoing Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh has tendered his resignation to the President of India today after giving his farewell speech. The Parliamentary Party of the BJP is going to meet in the capital on Tuesday, the 20^th of May to formally elect Narendra Modi as their leader and the next Prime Minister of India.

General Elections-2014: Would 16th May Bring In A New Government?

General Elections-2014 for Lok Sabha—the lower house of the Indian Parliament—has been a record in terms of maximum number of phases. The polling process was completed in nine phases starting 7^thApril and ending 12^th May. Voting percentage has been a record too for General Elections-2014 as this has been the highest since 1984. In 1984 voting percentage was 64% and it gave a landslide victory for the Congress led by late Rajiv Gandhi who became the Prime Minister. Following the assassination of Indira Gandhi a sympathy wave was cited as the main reason for the mandate. However, the high percentage of voting normally accompanying a wave was not anti-incumbency that time. This time the national average percentage is around 66% and this could normally signify an anti-incumbency wave. One more record has been made in terms of the lowest ever level of politics with unprecedented aggression, personalized attacks and polarization for General Elections-2014. Even the constitutional body of the Election Commission of India (EC) became the target of attacks by almost all political parties and often a part of the conspiracy theory that has been raging for the last few months making mainly the BJP to smell a Congress hand or the AAP smelling a Congress-BJP hand in any happening of any sort. Anyway, the BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi became the No. 1 campaigner holding on average two rallies daily for at least two months accompanied by a sound and aggressive marketing strategy. The Congress thought the counter offered by Rahul Gandhi might not be optimal and therefore the party unfolded the Priyanka Gandhi card at a later stage leading to a high-voltage climax.

The highlight of the last phase of polling was the Varanasi constituency in Uttar Pradesh where PM candidate Narendra Modi is having a direct fight with Arvind Kejriwal of AAP. Attention of not just India but that of the whole world has been focused on this exciting contest. The moment polling came to an end on the evening of 12^th May exit polls invaded almost all the national news channels. The interesting trend that emerged from all these exit polls was that a new government was going to be formed at the centre. And the national opposition party BJP led by Narendra Modi is clearly signaled to be the single largest party and that the new government was almost sure to be formed by them. The seats given to the BJP led NDA ranges from 250 to 340 indicating situations of looking for support from new allies to clear majority or absolute majority or even a two-thirds majority. The stock market has responded in a big way with the Sensex crossing 24,000 mark for the first time ever and is set to surpass even 25,000 on 16^thMay if BJP is given a clear public mandate. Well, the share market looks forward to having a stable government possibly ending a period of policy paralysis. US President Barack Obama has also expressed his eagerness to welcome a new government in India. The euphoria, particularly in the BJP ranks, across the country is visibly palpable with the sulking and the outgoing Congress-led ruling coalition UPA-2 having to blame only themselves for the unending series of scams and unprecedented levels of corruption.

Exit polls are not right every time. Some have already pointed out that exit polls wrongly predicted a BJP comeback in 2004 when there was actually a wave for change of power. However, this time all exit polls predicting similar results is being looked upon seriously combined with the record voting percentage and a clear perception of an anti-incumbency wave. These factors taken together only heighten the suspense created around the Counting Day on Friday, the 16^th May, 2014. Finally this day would reveal the full truth and could be historic in many ways. The countdown for the counting day is getting almost unbearable. Whole of India is focused on this day and waiting to see who would finally govern them.