General Elections-2024: The Bonds of the Indian Electorate!

By all available indicators, trends and analysis the Bhartiya Janata Party(BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—more precisely the Modi Government—is all set to perform a rare hattrick of coming-back-to-power in the 18^th Lok Sabha or General Elecitons-2024 that starts on 19^th April and stretches like IPL all the way to 1^st June when the 7^th phase of voting is scheduled with the counting of results scheduled on 4^th June. A host of media reports/opinion polls, analysis by poll experts/psephologists, the confidence of the ruling BJP in achieving a 400+ tally of seats for its alliance, the NDA’s already achieved hattrick of winning three Assembly Elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in 2023, a divided opposition despite the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance or the INDIA bloc of 27 political parties, and of course, the bonds of an endearing Indian electorate all point to this prediction which is fast becoming a certainty like a walkover before the match even began. The BJP on its own won 282 in 2014, 303 in 2019 and now they predict a tally of 350 seats. Even if they fail to reach 350, they seem almost sure to secure something around 300, and if they do so, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the first ever political leader of India to have achieved a single-party-majority three times in a row—meaning a resounding hattrick on all possible fronts.

The bonds of the Indian electorate seem to be growing warmer and warmer for their beloved leaders and the party, despite the Supreme Court striking down the Electoral Bonds Scheme. Some cynics point out that the vote shares in the previous two General Elections don’t quite bring out the maturing of the bonds of the electorate, because they say that the BJP’s vote share was just around 31% in 2014 and although it increased significantly to nearly 38% in 2019 it’s still lowly in view of the nearly 48% vote share achieved by the Indian National Congress or simply the Congress in 1957 under Jawaharlal Nehru. However, they miss on two points: first, the NDA has been marching along well securing about 45% vote share in the last elections and that since the beginning of ‘coalition politics’ from 1989 onwards the BJP’s achievement of 38% vote share is phenomenal.

The second point needs a little more elaboration. Vote shares are never a sound indicator if the bonds were warm or warmer. Vote shares don’t straightaway translate into winning more and more seats simply thanks to the fact that many candidates of both ruling and opposition parties have been winning seats by the slightest of vote margins which is a confirmed trend of modern poll and political times and that with the emergence of the regional parties there have been too many parties in the fray, sharing/splitting the pie. But on the other hand, the BJP candidates that won by large margins securing more than 50% vote shares of the constituencies concerned have increased from 136 in 2014 to 224 in 2019, and as per the available indicators this figure is set to get bigger this time. Cynics again counter this by saying that in the case of opposition candidates too, the number of wins securing more than 50% of the votes has increased from 64 in 2014 to 117 in 2019 which is more than that of the BJP in percentage terms. However, with the ruling alliance winning over many candidates/factions/parties across the Indian states to its fold quite a few of the erstwhile popular opposition candidates can turn to popular ruling candidates this time.

How big a challenge is the INDIA bloc? Well, even as the marginalization of Congress continues unabated and many parties having expressed their unwillingness either to partner with to share seats with it, the Bloc has been finding it hard to weather the storm keeping its flock together. Besides, most of the parties in the Bloc are extremely self-interested with the big few among them trying to promote their own prime ministerial candidates. And most significantly, they say an absolute ‘no’ to any leader from the Congress, particularly, Rahul Gandhi, emerging as a PM candidate. This is only natural: how could anyone earthily expect leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Akhilesh Yadav among others agree to having Rahul Gandhi or even Mallikarjun Kharge as their leader should they make it to the Lok Sabha? Then the exodus from the Congress, including very senior leaders continues unabated too. Thus the possibility of the Bloc having a unanimous PM candidate remains a mirage. And, to counter a basically personality-driven party the challengers will have to find a unanimous leader—sooner than later. Not to speak of the ideologies involved. The opposition parties are united only in one issue: that the central agencies have been let loose on them with the express political aim of demoralizing or deactivating them. However, the point remains as to why such ‘vindicated’ leaders like Kejriwal are not facing up to the challenge by confronting the agencies and proving their innocence! To be on a little positive side, the Bloc of late has indeed been making some headway in the South and parts of the East and the West.

Having said all this it must be taken into consideration that the sense of overconfidence is not at all healthy under any circumstances. It would be an insult to the elections of the biggest democracy of the world by presuming it to be a foregone conclusion. One particularly should not forget the surprise loss of the visionary leader-statesman-poet-former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2004 when his BJP’s victory was almost a foregone conclusion. The Indian elections are still immensely capable of throwing up surprises, despite all the odds. No doubt, the development story, the growth of Hindu nationalistic patriotism or jingoism, the scintillating Ram Mandir & the dream of Ram Rajya, successes in foreign policy and so on are definitely making the bonds of the electorate get warmer. But on the other hand, some of the bonds could get somewhat adversely affected too by the termination of the Electoral Bonds, the handling of the farmers’ agitation, the promulgation of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) just before the elections, taking the celebrated corrupt leaders of all time liberally into the party fold, the unabashed use of the central agencies and other issues. Besides, the BJP or the NDA still remains entirely Modi-centric. A personality-driven wave need not be repetitive all the time. So then, General Elections-2024 could still be no less than a cricket thriller! Get set and Vote!

Welcome Madam President: Draupadi Murmu Elected India’s 15th President!

Draupadi Murmu, a tribal BJP leader from the state of Odisha, has been elected as the 15^thPresident of India after she had secured more than 51% of the votes in the third round of counting that started today morning. Even as more rounds of counting still remain the final election announcement becomes a mere formality. Draupadi Murmu belongs to the Santhal tribe of India and thus becomes the first ever Scheduled Tribe person to become the President of India. And she is only the second woman President of the country after Pratibha Patil, the 12^thPresident during 2007-2012. Madam Murmu was born on 20^th June, 1958 in a village of Mayurbhanj district of Odisha. Both her father and her grandfather were village headmen (Sarpanch), and so in a way, she’d been associated with public life from her childhood. She had served in the profession of teaching and initially also worked as a clerk in the state irrigation department. In her personal life she had to face a series of tragedies—losing her husband in 2014, then both her sons and a brother in a span of four years. Madam Murmu then sought spiritual solace by joining the Brahma Kumaris and her daughter for family.

 

Draupadi Murmu joined the BJP in 1997 and served two terms as a minister in the state cabinet of Odisha when Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik was having a coalition government with the BJP in the state. In 2015 she was appointed the Governor of Jharkhand, an eastern state of India with a major chunk of tribal population and she was the first ever lady Governor of the state. As the outgoing President of India Ram Nath Kovind was to complete his term this year, the BJP nominated Madam Murmu as the Presidential candidate for their ruling National Democratic Alliance. The announcement was strategically a masterstroke as no political party in India in the right frame of mind could afford to reject or vote against a woman tribal candidate. The move thus divided the opposition ranks effectively and ensured a landslide for Draupadi Murmu with the combined opposition candidate Yashwant Sinha, a former BJP stalwart and now a TMC leader, left only watching from the sidelines.  

 

Celebrations all across the country are in full swing, with a rich unfolding of the Santali and other tribal folk dances, distribution of sweets and bursting of crackers. Particularly for Odisha, a very joyous occasion indeed with the first ever person from the state becoming the country’s President. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already visited the Delhi residence of Draupadi Murmu and officially congratulated her. There’s been a lot of speculation and debates going on in the Indian media about the ruling alliance’s political masterstroke and if the new President is in fact going to be just a rubber stamp. All such politicking should be left out at this historic moment as the first ever tribal lady of the country is going to be sworn in as the 15^th President of India. No doubt, Draupadi Murmu will have many challenges waiting for her in a country where the tribal inhabitants are still looked down upon and the atrocities on them and on the tribal women still being daily occurrences in various parts of the country. We extend our best wishes for the First Lady (not as the President’s wife, but as the President herself) and wish her a very successful five-year career.

Indian Farmers’ Crisis: Two Months And The Republic Day Aftermath!

Perhaps the Indian agitating farmers, protesting for more than 60 days, made two strategic mistakes at two crucial junctures. First when the Supreme Court of India stayed the Farm Laws till further orders and constituted a panel to carry forward the discussion. The farmers rejected this saying that all the four members of the panel were in support of the three Farm Laws, and that they wanted to talk with the Government only and wanted solutions through this. Perhaps, they could have perceived the stay on the implementation of the laws as a moral victory, and felt the opportunity in this, because the opinions of the panelists were not going to be the final say with the Supreme Court observing.

 

Second when the Government of India proposed what they had termed as the best offer: willing to stay the three laws for a period 18 months and carrying on the process of discussion, looking for required amendments of some provisions and so on. The farmers rejected this too saying that they would not stop at anything short of a repeal of the laws and a legislation to guarantee Minimum Support Prices. Perhaps, they could have reasoned that one and half years was quite a long time, and that the interim period was full of opportunities at finally arriving at the laws they would not object to.

 

The sole factor responsible for the stalemate has been the ever-growing trust deficit between the farmers and the government. The farmers did not want to put trust on the government due to many reasons, and they were also apprehensive of losing the momentum of the painstakingly built-up movement once they agreed to the proposals or rather falling into the trap supposedly set by the government.

 

The BJP-led National Democratic Government at the centre has always been used to more of cracking down on democratic movement than respecting the same over the last few years. The methods used to crack a movement are familiar to many, and in trying to crack the Farmers’ Movement most of the ‘time-tested’ methods are used: that the laws passed by the Parliament will be very beneficial for the farmers; that the agitation represented only two states of India and the rest of the farmers are always in support of the laws; that parallel farm unions are meeting the government to urge them usher in the reforms; that the opposition political parties are misleading the farmers; that terrorist elements have infiltrated the agitation and the enemy nation beyond the border is trying to take advantage of this to create disturbances; and that finally after a successful crack, labelling all agitators as anti-nationals or traitors or terrorists.   

 

What happened in the national capital on the 72^nd Republic Day, 26^th January 2021, in the wake of a tractor rally by the agitating farmers that was granted permission to enter Delhi after the Supreme Court refused to interfere, was a blot in the entire history of independent India. The utter chaos, the sporadic violence unfolding across the streets, the breach of the historical Red Fort and the injuries suffered by the policemen were unprecedented and must be condemned by all. Insult to the national flag cannot be condoned under any circumstances either. However, another chaotic drama unfolded immediately afterwards with the crosscurrents of photos/videos in the social media and on the television screens: one group saying the farmers had insulted the national tricolor and were actually terrorists while the other group alleging the opposite saying that the peaceful agitating farmers were not part of the violent acts, and that it was a conspiracy of the national ruling party to break the movement.

 

Well, the government, enjoying the support of a brute but abundantly clear majority, achieved what was required to put the agitation to an end irrespective of the contrasting narratives in circulation. FIRs and lookout notices were pressed in for most of the farmer leaders, and more forces, the police and paramilitary, were posted at all of the three protest sites bordering the national capital Delhi which are Ghazipur, Singhu and Tikri. The Yogi Government of Uttar Pradesh issued an ultimatum to the farmers at Ghazipur, ordering them to vacate immediately, and the forces even staged a flag march there in the dead of the night of 27-28^th January, 2021. Water and electricity supplies were cut off. Similar moves were also noticed at the Singhu border which has been the epicenter of the movement since the last two months.

 

The two-month-old farmers’ movement seemed doomed and actually cracked open with several Unions withdrawing from the protests and hundreds of farmers returning to their villages. But then, everything changed which essentially meant that the government’s perception about the ‘movement’ was wrong. One front-running leader of Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU), Rakesh Tikait, surrounded by security forces and deserted by many farmers during the same night of January 27-28^th at Ghazipur, cried out conspiracy and became tearfully emotional. He declared an indefinite fast, and said he would drink water only from his village.

 

His interview given to the media went viral instantly. And, his brother-leader in Uttar Pradesh along with thousands of farmers expressed shock, anger and sadness. They started garnering support immediately and started sending enforcements of farmers carrying the essentials including drinking water. Thus supported, Rakesh Tikait defied the Yogi government ultimatum with more and more farmers rejoining, even the returning farmers coming back. The plan of the Yogi government could never be carried out even as water and electricity supplies were restored the next day.

 

One more shocking event of mob violence happened at Singhu border on 29^th January which made the ‘conspiracy’ angle much more plausible. A group of more than 200 people, claiming to be locals and wanting farmers to end stir in view of they insulting the national tricolor, carrying the national tricolor were allowed to cross at least three heavy barricades and to come face to face with the agitating farmers, calling the latter names in the most horrific way. The mob started pelting stones at the farmers ransacking their tents and belongings as the police looked on. Only when the situation got out of control with some the mob swinging swords the police cracked down, and at least two of them were seriously injured. Fortunately, this time the policemen were not attacked by the ‘farmers’.

 

The Farmers’ Movement, instead of getting cracked open, has got a second lease of life, perhaps even stronger than before. The cultivators are the providers of food and they constitute the bane of the Indian economy. In the long run all stakeholders have everything to lose only if they try to divide or alienate them or calling them ‘traitors’, or ‘terrorists’ or ‘anti-nationals’. Good sense seems to have prevailed over the Government with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for the first time, reaching out to the farmers saying that the ‘best offer’ still holds and that resolution must be reached through dialogue only. The concerns of the farmers must be put at rest first, reforms can come after that. 

Congress Vs BJP: One More Indian Political Thriller!

The Indian National Congress (simply called the Congress), the oldest political party of India, was the single largest party in the legislative assembly election of Rajasthan in 2018 with just one seat less than simple majority and formed government with the support of independents and smaller parties. Thus, it had succeeded in snatching power from Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) who secured a landslide victory in 2013. This victory was one of the three major ones achieved by the Congress in 2018 with assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh also won—a tremendous performance for a party that was totally decimated by the BJP in the General Elections of 2014 and in the following assembly elections. However, the party’s persistence with its old guards alienated the young promising leaders, and as in Madhya Pradesh by Jyotiraditya Scindia in March this year dissidence grew in Rajasthan too with its dynamic leader Sachin Pilot breaking out in an open revolt on 12^th July 2020 after a series of reported attempts by the Chief Minister, Ashok Gehlot, to sideline him, claiming support of 19-21 Congress legislators, reducing the ruling coalition to near minority And, the northern state of India was plunged into a political crisis—closely representing several political dramas that were witnessed in the last five years, basically engineered by the BJP’s power grab tactics.

Interestingly, in this crisis in Rajasthan the young rebellious leader Sachin Pilot had not joined the BJP immediately like Scindia, and canceled two press briefings planned by him in the last two days. The Congress party, in bonhomie with old guard Gehlot, sacked Pilot from the posts of Deputy Chief Minister and state Congress Chief along with two ministers and the legislators supporting him. Yet, Pilot had not made any counter move and reportedly said that he was being maligned by spreading the rumor about his joining the BJP; Pilot further said that he was still a Congressman and still stood with the Gandhi family in the party’s high command. Meanwhile, Rajasthan Congress moved the assembly Speaker for the disqualification of all dissident legislators which, if approved, would bar all of them from voting in a probable no-confidence motion in near future, favoring the Chief Minister prove his majority. Interestingly too, the BJP had not played its cards actively—particularly in view of the Rajasthan Chief Minister’s allegations that BJP had been poaching the Congress MLAs in connivance with Pilot, the way it was done in Madhya Pradesh with Scindia.

Irrespective of how the Rajasthan drama would finally turn out to be it is being viewed as one of the absolute political thrillers enacted by the BJP in its indomitable bid to win over as many states of India as possible. In the historic General Elections of 2014, for the first time since 1984 BJP emerged as the only single party to have achieved absolute majority in Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Indian Parliament, with its tally of 282 seats out of 545 which further swelled to 336 after accommodating its allies in the National Democratic Alliance government formed. The Congress party lost the elections with pathetic numbers largely due to the corruption scams in its rule of ten years prior to 2014, and many political commentators predicted its obliteration from Indian politics hence. As if justifying this prediction, the BJP went on winning almost all the state assembly elections till 2017 including landslides in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat thus earning an invincible tag. Although it could not get the majority in Bihar in 2015 it enacted a thriller in 2017 by forming government in alliance with Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (Secular). Afterwards, in the state elections where it again could not get majority the party engineered alliances with regional parties to oust the Congress even as the latter was the single largest party on various occasions, like in the states of Goa, Manipur and Meghalaya. In other states like in Nagaland and Mizoram it included the regional parties in the NDA helping them win. In 2016 the BJP won landslide victory in Assam; in Tripura in 2018 when it snatched power in a state that was ruled by the left for decades. Thus, by 2018 it directly or indirectly established its authority in the whole of the North East India, a traditional bastion for the Congress apart from its absolute domination in northern, central and western India with the solitary exception of Punjab. In the south Karnataka was won back in 2019 from a Congress coalition government through another political drama after the BJP could not form government in 2018 assembly elections despite being the single largest party.

The venue for the very first, highly dramatic and prolonged political thriller was Arunachal Pradesh—another state of the North Eastern India. Congress won the assembly election in 2014 here and during the end of 2015 to end-2016 high drama ensued with unpredictable twists and turns till a BJP government was finally established. As usual, the trouble started with dissidence within Congress and with a proactive Governor things became explosive: assembly session being held in a hotel; Supreme Court intervention; President’s rule; suicide of a former Chief Minister; dismissal of the Governor and reigns of four Chief Ministers during the period with the fourth first sworn in as a Congress CM and later, on defecting to the BJP with all of his legislators to become a BJP CM. In 2019 assembly elections the BJP achieved a landslide victory in the state.

The NDA government, empowered by a huge majority, pursued an aggressive Hindu nationalist policy since 2014 which gave rise to extreme Hindu conservatism creating an atmosphere of intolerance and fear even over petty issues like food. As the mainstream and fringe Hindu organizations and forces got activated incidents of lynching started taking place at various parts of the country fueled basically by rumors on the social media. Although such incidents were not wholly targeted against any particular minority community, tensions became rife over issues like beef-eating and certain religious practices. The opposition and many in the intelligentsia termed the rule as ‘fascist’, and slowly the happenings started denting the absolute popularity the BJP enjoyed. This got reflected in state assembly elections in 2018 when a struggling Congress won convincingly in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan forming governments there. In political thrillers that ensued again Madhya Pradesh was won back in March 2020 through winning over a disillusioned Jyotiraditya Scindia, and then the drama shifted to Rajasthan; Chhattisgarh still safely with Congress. The BJP was also outsmarted in Maharashtra assembly elections in 2019 when ally Shiv Sena deserted the BJP and allied with Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to form government. Controversial decisions on Jammu and Kashmir and the Citizenship Amendment Act also ignited opposition—both on the public and political fronts.

However, at the national level the BJP-led government is still in full authority winning the 2019 General Elections with even more seats than 2014. People and experts feel that there is no alternative to the BJP at the national level till now, and bold measures and policies, particularly foreign policies, pursued by the NDA are supported by the majority despite the economic downswing since the last two years. For the Congress, they must learn to respect and depend on the new generation leaders if they at all aspire to be a force in national politics. The BJP’s fascination for bold measures, authority, power expansion, drama, sensation and unpredictability is insatiable, particularly with crucial elections due in Bihar in 2020, and in West Bengal and Assam next year. 

The Assam Movement 2.0!

Assam, a state of the North Eastern India, is up again with a mass movement against the provisions of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) which implies granting citizenship on religious grounds. Numerous petitions from students, advocates, intellectuals and others against CAA are pending the Supreme Court, and so, although the matter is sub judice the various issues involved are in the public domain and are being continually debated and discussed. Therefore, I intend to bring up here certain aspects of the issues involved in relation to the realities in Assam and in other states of the North East.

The crux of the CAA as far as Assam is concerned is again in relation to the ‘foreigners’ issue for which the state had to undertake a mass movement during 1979 to 1985 when the All Assam Students Union (AASU) provided the leadership that culminated in the signing of the Assam Accord with the Congress government led by the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. The newly-formed Assam Gana Parishad (AGP), consisting mostly of AASU leaders, came to power in Assam in 1985. However, precious little was done by the so-called peoples’ government in its first term and also in the second term later in terms of detection & deportation of foreigners and to effectively prevent continuous influx from neighboring Bangladesh.

Influx of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh to Assam and other parts of the North East and India is not a new problem. It was there in the British period when Bengal consisted of both East and West Bengal; it was there during the Partition; it continued in the post-independence period with a new thrust on ‘vote-bank’ politics of successive governments in Assam; it escalated during the Pakistani invasion of East Pakistan in 1971 and after the formation of Bangladesh the same year. Since then, Bangladesh has been a friendly neighbor for India, and despite numerous rounds of bilateral talks on various issues including the influx hardly anything solid was done to prevent further migration or to deport the existing ‘foreigners’; acts on detection of foreigners were brought in or amended or repealed without tangible results and the work of ‘effective fencing’ in the border never really took off amid allegations of a ‘traditional’ corruption racket in letting in illegal migrants for a few bucks, not to speak about the largely ‘unmanaged’ riverine routes to Assam.

Now, let us turn to a few salient features of the Assam Movement. The hard facts first: the ‘foreigners’ from Bangladesh belonged to two Indian religions—Hindu and Muslim; the ‘foreigners’ spoke a prominent Indian language—Bangla or Bengali; the Indian Bengalis emotionally believe that all of them were part of the same community before the Partition and most of them, so, cannot help but feel a lot of affinity for the ‘foreigners’. Thanks to these ‘historical facts’ vested political and other interests always created a ‘conscious confusion’ over ‘minorities—religious or linguistic’ and ‘foreigners’, and this, as intended, always led other Indians to believe that the Movement was communal and was directed against ‘outsiders’ and not ‘foreigners’ apart from the inner conflict between the local people of Assam and the Indian Bengalis living there. During the time of the first Assam Movement some of us were studying in Delhi while all the students of Assam lost a full academic year. We carried out a sort of ‘Delhi chapter’ of the movement organizing protests and meeting various political leaders; our focus was on pointing out the non-communal nature of the movement which was being directed against ‘foreigners’ irrespective of religion or language and not against ‘outsiders’ or ‘minorities’. At least during my lifetime, there has hardly been anything that distinguishes an Assamese Hindu from an Assamese Muslim; such was the peaceful co-existence in the state incorporating numerous other tribes living there over centuries having their distinct culture and languages. Unfortunately, despite our best efforts over the last few decades, we still have to convince other Indians about our non-communal movement and that our only concerns are about deportation of foreigners and prevention of further influx from Bangladesh. However, vested interests and politics of vote-bank and polarization never listen to real arguments.

The CAA has brought in its wake an existential threat to the Assamese-speaking community in Assam, because the proposed grant of citizenship to all Hindu foreigners who speak Bangla and who have come before 31^st December, 2014, while the cut-off date for illegal immigrants agreed upon in the Assam Accord was 24^th March, 1971, is set to make the local people a linguistic minority in their own state. This is also true for some tribes of the North East states like the Khasis in Meghalaya. People of the region also see in this an absolute betrayal of their elected representatives of the ruling parties as while the act was passed by both the houses of Parliament not a single vote from the North East ruling MPs went against it. And how the governments of Assam and other NE states are looking at the mass movement? Before going to that we must bring in a political perspective. The BJP government installed overwhelmingly in 2016 in Assam talked that time about deporting every single Bangladeshi foreigner from the state, and when the National Register of Citizens (NRC) was started in Assam under the supervision of the Supreme Court it was seen by people as a genuine effort to detect and deport foreigners. However, after exclusion of several millions of suspected foreigners in the NRC, most of them Hindus, even state BJP leaders expressed their displeasure and later on started saying that this NRC was just a beginning and that a more comprehensive campaign would be taken up later, the thousands of crores of rupees spent notwithstanding. In this light, the introduction of ‘Citizenship Amendment Bill’ (CAB) was significant, because it was apparent that CAB aimed at achieving what NRC couldn’t. And that paved the way for the protests to include NRC, CAA and even the National Population Register (NPR) in the movement against as suspicious moves in the alleged overall agenda of divisive and polarization politics of the Hindutva parties. This complete picture made the movement pan-Indian.

However, one basic reason for the pan-India protests is the alleged constitutional violation by the act in that it went against the secular ideals while trying to grant citizenship in terms of religious affiliation. The Indian Muslims, a minority community in Hindu-majority India, began to feel insecure and considered themselves as targets of the act or the proposed moves. All other political parties, irrespective of ideologies, also started protesting vehemently due to the constitutional violation and communal politics. From the beginning the Union Government and the state governments of the North Eastern states looked at the movement as unwarranted, because they consistently affirmed that all of CAA, NRC, NPR are for the ultimate good of the Indian citizens, and they immediately focused on the initial violence committed by some miscreants during the movement to castigate the vested elements and the opposition political parties for misdirecting or misguiding the people sitting on protest for blatant political capital. They refused to accept that people consisting of students, artistes, intellectuals, advocates, farmers, women, parties/activists irrespective of ideologies and common folks cannot possibly be continually ‘misguided’ by any vested interest. Besides, the opposition political parties of Assam and the North East are not much loved by the people and they were rejected by the people in the earlier decades for their misdeeds.

Now about ‘religious persecution’, the newly coined term introduced in the act; this actually is limited to a few religions including Hinduism prominently. Why the government is suddenly bothered about ‘persecuted minorities’ in a few carefully selected countries? Apparently, this is being seen as vote-bank electoral politics to polarize the population along religious lines; the main stakes being the assembly election in 2021 in West Bengal where a prominent section of Hindu immigrants are set to be benefited by CAA and then in Assam and other NE states where the party has effectively established their rule. Besides, while the concern about the ‘persecuted minorities’ in Pakistan and Afghanistan can be justified to some extent the same in Bangladesh is wrought with dubiousness. During the Pakistani invasion in the then East Pakistan in 1971 persecution of Hindus there could have been an issue, but over the decades there has been no proof of similar repression of minorities. The Bangladeshi influx since the pre-independence days has always been irrespective of religions as both Muslim and Hindu immigrants kept on coming to India, possibly due to economic reasons.

The government has been saying all the while about the people being misguided, but on their part they have miserably failed to give specific clarifications regarding why the minorities in India, the threatened communities in Indian states, the secular-spirited people of the country should not at all worry. Why, can they afford to keep Bangladesh out of the ambit of the CAA, because there is no proof of religious persecution of minorities there and Bangladesh continues to be a friendly neighbor? Hardly, thanks to the momentous ‘electoral’ repercussions for the Hindutva elements that would possibly emanate from such an omission. This also puts the selection of only a few particular countries and a few particular religions under the ambit of the act under scrutiny.

Assam cannot turn back now, till the worries about their threatened existence are amiably meted. The Supreme Court hearing on CAA petitions is set for 22^ndJanuary, 2020, and people are putting their hope solely on that top authority of justice. People know as their leaders are saying the Assam Movement 2.0 is set to be a long-term long-drawn one with no specific results expected.  They have forsaken the winter festivals, the picnics, other forms of celebrations and even their harvest festival the Maghor Bhogali Bihu coming in a few days is in great uncertainty. Leaders are emphasizing though: students must pursue their studies on; employees/professionals must carry on their livelihood activities; development work must not be interrupted, and after ensuring all these they must sit dedicated and committed to the movement—on almost a daily basis. The Government must cast their arrogance away and concentrate on doing good to the very people who had elected them on high hopes, and must find a long-term solution instead of going for short-term measures like grant of Inner Line Permits or executing certain provisions of the sixth schedule of the constitution in relation to welfare of certain tribes of the region. Assam, again, find herself at the crossroads, and what possibly could be a turning point in the history of the state, and we fervently hope they achieve their democratic victory as soon as possible.

Politics Of Corruption: The Elliptical Embrace!

While with his crusader mentor he was a dedicated and committed worker-activist trying to root out corruption from the face of India. His principles were then in the right place as he was fondly called the right hand of his mentor. However, he had another quality—ambition, and that too was very principled. He perhaps thought that eradicating corruption was a huge task as long as one had to fight a formidable system set in place over the years by corrupt governments. Therefore he thought that the only way to fight corruption effectively had to be from within. He had to have a political entity to enter the system and fight it. And from that moment his ambition took over command keeping principles in abeyance. He left his mentor high and dry and formed a new political party. Rest is history.

Quick-fix developments and growing evidence over the last three years tend to show that Dehli Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) could be the first ever political party in the country to be able to learn the secrets of politics in the shortest possible period of time. AAP has tasted, experimented and executed all forms of politics during this period and showed an exemplary acumen in handling-manipulating-exploiting conditions, even converting non-political conditions into rampant politics. In this light, Kejriwal’s latest antic of embracing Bihar’s Lalu Prasad Yadav in the swearing-in ceremony of the new government led by Nitish Kumar is just one more example of practical politics. In fact, AAP has already clarified that the embrace was only a courteous gesture and that AAP is for Nitish only and never for Lalu.

Maybe for the common people it still stinks. The common people enthusiastically lapped up the idea of a corruption-free society and joined the movement by Anna Hazare en masse. They did not mind when Kejriwal took up the fight politically deserting Anna. They brought him into power allowing his even to compromise to form a ‘common people’ government. They brought him again into power with an unprecedented mandate, forgiving him his ‘compulsion’ to run away from governance in his first chance. And then all his ‘antics’ continued to be on display with his own ‘fighters’ deserting his party or being thrown out unceremoniously. And now, embracing a symbol of corruption and non-performance in full public view, and raising their hands in victory seems maybe little too much for the forgiving public. Furthermore, this is the same personality whom he criticized earlier for being corrupt. Experts say there are no absolutes in politics, but saner politicians or parties need to think twice before being part of an unholy alliance where ‘development’ is absent and only ‘ambition’ is present overwhelmingly. Unfortunately, this is what is happening at the moment with the ‘holy’ aim of thwarting a so-called communal party or alliance.

What is Bihar’s gain from its super-hyped assembly elections? Well, they only gained Nitish who has been a performer for the state. However, facts reveal that Nitish performed better when being part of an alliance with the BJP. Now, with a non-performing but very powerful ally it is bound to be uphill for Nitish to even govern. Lalu Prasad Yadav has the most potent controls in his hands in the forms of his son as Deputy Chief Minister, his other comrades as ministers and a caste-laden government to boot. Plus of course, the Congress—a party totally bankrupt of ideas and just trying to survive on ‘excuses’ provided unawares by some anti-social elements. Even then, the Bihar example is encouraging everyone in opposition to the present government across India to come up with grand alliances of corrupt, non-performing, opportunistic, rejected, degenerate and divisive political entities just to keep the BJP led NDA out. They protest against alleged ‘polarization’ of the country and encourage caste politics even getting close to supporting terrorists just to score points against the present government.

If keeping the BJP out is their idea of having a 'united India'  God help us all. 

Advani Vs Modi: A Tale Of Acceptance, Rejections And Denial!

We have been used to getting impatient with Pakistan for being in a constant denial mode, but presently we are increasingly getting used to the Indian national opposition political party BJP demonstrating the same mode most lucidly. Interestingly enough, the BJP has always been used to castigating Pakistan in the strongest of terms for upsetting India with its constant irritants and then the denials instantly. That we are not beating around the bush would get clearer as we push ahead with this post. 

As we all know one of the founder figures of the BJP, Lal Krishna Advani has always been used to opposing the idea of Narendra Modi taking over the lead role in BJP. But the BJP could no longer ignore Modi due to his natural aggressive leadership and recent achievements for his party. The Goa BJP national convention was the occasion when the party had to take a position on Modi considering the paramount importance of getting battle-ready for General Elections-2014. Threatened with internal disagreements, rival camps and absence of prominent leaders including Advani the BJP was in no state to rush through the decision. The denial saga started gloriously from here. The party denied that Advani was absent due to difference of opinion, but only because he was not well. 

The traditional denial of the BJP had been that the party had never had any political links with the right-wing Hindu nationalist organization RSS, and that it was always a cultural association only. So when a prominent leader of the RSS ‘advised’ the BJP President Rajnath Singh to announce Modi's anointment as the Chairman of its Election Campaign Committee for 2014 the Goa convention accepted Modi in that role and denied that the RSS played any part in that historic decision. 

Just the next day the 85-year-old doyen of the party resigned from all party posts putting BJP in its worst crisis and dilemma ever. As it has always been used to the party downplayed the episode saying that they would persuade their guiding angel to take back his resignation. Accordingly the BJP Parliamentary Board ‘rejected’ his resignation and negotiations with Advani continued to the next day involving all possible camps or groups within. It was ironic that all these groups within wanted him to continue blessing and guiding the party never wanting to understand that the veteran leader might still have his sights focused on being the next Prime Minister—an honour he could not achieve so far even after becoming the Deputy Prime Minister during 2002-04. Alas! BJP President Rajnath Singh said on the contrary that the decision on Modi would never be rolled back.

Finally then, another prominent leader of the RSS again ‘advised’ Advani and immediately thereafter the veteran politician ‘accepted’ the party’s ‘rejection’ of his resignation. You guessed it! The BJP again denied any influence of the RSS and the RSS also corroborated this by claiming that they have never been used to interfering in BJP’s internal matters. Well, you must be knowing that LK Advani had to resign from his party president post in 2005 after the RSS criticized him severely for his praise of Pakistan’s founding father Jinnah and referring to him as a secular leader. It is ironic that nobody within BJP seemed to understand why RSS needed one and not the other.

Mamata+Navin+Nitish

All the while the most pleased beholders of the Advani Vs Modi spectacle were their political rivals, former allies of the UPA-2 and allies of the BJP led NDA. They rallied behind Advani for BJP’s discomfiture and when Advani had to take back his resignation the prominent ally of NDA, Janta Dal-United (JDU) having a coalition government with BJP in Bihar, started discussions about withdrawing from NDA. And, a Third Front began to loom large with the inimitable Mamata Bannerji trying to rope in the Odissa Chief Minister Navin Patnaik and also the JDU Chief Minister of Bihar, Nitish Kumar. Unfortunately the Left, harassed by merciless Mamata since she ousted them after 34 years in power in West Bengal, had already left the Third Front forces in the lurch. The BJP still denies any rift in the party or in its alliance.

And as is only natural with a diehard veteran LK Advani became active again trying to save and rejuvenate the NDA. Despite the occasional ‘advice’ coming his way he would never have Narendra Modi stealing the lead from him in his own party. The Advani Vs Modi political saga is here to stay. And hark! Dare not speak anything against the denying BJP, because they have been used to terming anything against them as conspiracy, particularly now with a new leader at its helm.