India Play Holi Amid Frayed Nerves Over Russian-Ukraine War And Concerns For A COVID-19 4th Wave!

The Festival of Colors, Holi, began in India with the symbolic burning of Holika (a demoness of ancient times representing the evil or the Satan) effigy last night. This festival is celebrated every year in the last full moon night of the Hindu calendar year. Today, the colors are submerging the country in a spirit of joy. The Indians righteously feel and justify the celebrations across the country as they have missed this for the last two years, and after all, this signifies the victory of good over evil. For the last one month the country has seen a return to near normalcy with all restrictions except for the mask removed, the schools/colleges reopening; and just when they felt that the Pandemic had finally entered the endemic phase came the WHO (World Health Organization) warning that the pandemic is far from over and it has been spiking globally again with more than 11 million cases new cases and over 43,000 deaths in the last week. Combine this with the Russia-Ukraine war raging now for over three weeks. Therefore, the Globe is in a real soup at the moment with the heady mix of war, pandemic and inflation—the last being fueled by the firsts. Indeed, we need victory over the evil forces desperately now.

 

Most of the international powers, super or otherwise, are really getting ruffled up now by what they call the Russian belligerence. True to its strategic interests Russia has been talking peace with Ukraine (that once Ukraine agrees to Russian conditions there'd be instant ceasefire) while stepping up the attacks, particularly targeting the civil population as alleged by Ukraine. The Ukraine official media has released pictures of airports, hospitals, schools, theatres and so on being hit by Russian missiles. The siege of Kyiv and other major cities continue. As anticipated, Russia had ignored the order of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to suspend its war immediately. Somewhat inspired by the recent Indian trends perhaps, Putin’s government has decided to label all antiwar Russians as traitors.

 

Photo: cnn.com

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, in his trademark green t-shirt, has addressed the US Congress recently, urging them to help now or never to avert the invasion. Although he has been renewing his appeals for a no-fly zone it was made clear to him that the no-fly zone declaration or sending MiG fighter jets was not possible as it would escalate the war globally. So, Zelensky asked for other military aid from the US and the European countries in his last address. President Joe Biden responded by granting a $800 million worth military aid in terms of anti-aircraft systems, anti-tank weapons and drones. President Zelensky’s passionately emotional appeal earned him a standing ovation from the US Congress while a sort of comedy was created too as one lawmaker raised the query as to whether Zelensky did not own a suit.

 

Unable to either stop or defeat Russia through endless rounds of economic sanctions President Biden used the strongest words so far calling Putin ‘a war criminal’ while maintaining his stand to not send US ground troops to Ukraine as any direct conflict between Russia and the NATO would result in World War-III. The US Senate also called for an investigation into the alleged war crimes by Putin. The US lawmakers are applying more pressure now on India to take a stand against Russia while India’s Indian Oil Corporation has bought 3 million barrels of crude oil from Russia reportedly at a heavy discount. It was also reported that an Indian judge in the ICJ had voted against Russia in support of the court’s order.

 

With no end in sight for the Ukraine crisis the pandemic resurge has added more problems. The WHO warning said that one of the three sub-variants of Omicron, namely the BA.2 variant, has been found to be the dominant virus in the recent surge in China, South Korea and Hong Kong—China already putting nearly 37 million of its citizens under lockdown after reaching the highest ever daily-infection figures since the pandemic started; South Korea registering a record daily new cases of around 600,000 only yesterday, a supposed peak for the country; and Hong Kong reporting a rising trend of deaths, particularly because a large chunk of its elderly population is yet to be vaccinated.  A few cases of the BA.2 virus, also called the ‘stealth virus’ due to its ability to escape detection through the normal RT-PCR tests, are also being found in Israel. European nations like Germany, France and the UK among others are also showing rising infections in recent days. The WHO warns that the surge may be heading toward countries in eastern Europe too including Belarus and Ukraine, and appealed to the nations to not lax the testing/detection/contact measures further. President Biden is also put under more pressure due to the surge.

 

Some studies have reportedly said that the new surge or the COVID-19 Fourth Wave may reach India by June this year and may last for four months. Amid the relaxations, the elections and the celebrations the Government of India had taken a high-level meeting to study the new threat. In all, we are looking at a very volatile and uncertain future at the moment, confounded by the Ukraine war and an obstinately resurging two-year-old pandemic. The crude oil prices had come down to around $100 a barrel on the hopes of a truce between Russia and Ukraine; but now the uncertainty is bound to come back. All the growth rates as far as the starting-to-revive economies are being concerned are set to be revised downwards at any time. 

Assembly Election Dates Announced By The ECI: Step Aside, Omicron!

The Election Commission of India (ECI) has today, a day when the country logged 1,41,986 new COVID-19 cases, announced the dates for assembly elections in 5 states of India, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa, starting from February 10, 2022. The polling in all five states will be completed between 10^th February and 7^th March in seven phases while the counting is to take place on 10^th March for all five states. UP election will be spread over all the seven phases till 7^th March; Uttarakhand, Punjab and Goa will have single phase polls on 14^th February; and Manipur will have two-phase polling due to security concerns in the state on 27^thFebruary and March 3, 2022. More than 180 million citizens are set to exercise their voting rights during this what is often referred as festival of democracy.

 

The Chief Election Commissioner (CEC), Sushil Chandra, assured while addressing a press conference in the national capital Delhi that the elections would be fully COVID-19 safe for all stakeholders—the authorities, the polling officials and the voters. He said that the ECI has held consultations with the concerned authorities in all the states taking stock of the situation and asked them to ramp up vaccination to have all the voters fully vaccinated by next month.  The polling officials will be given the double doses and the booster dose too as far as possible. The voting hours have also been increased by an hour.

 

The CEC further said that the number of polling stations and booths has been jacked up for easy and safe polling with the number of voters per polling booth being reduced from 1500 to 1250. All COVID appropriate measures will be enforced in all polling stations with masks, sanitizers made available there, he added. Asked about the exponential Omicron spread across the country Chandra quickly pointed out that elections are not taking place in the worst affected states like Maharashtra, West Bengal and Delhi. However, he assured, that the ECI will keep on monitoring the situations in all the poll-bound states and adopt measures as necessary.

 

The biggest positive point about the ECI briefing is that all political rallies, roadshows and processions of any sort are banned till January 15, 2022, after which the Commission would review the situation for further action, and that there shall be no victory marches after counting. The normal regulation declared during the assembly elections amid the second wave last year will continue which is that there will no rallies or gatherings of any kind from 8 pm to 8 am daily till the end of the poll schedule. Secondly, the 80+ senior citizens and COVID positive patients can vote through the postal ballots from their homes where the ECI teams would supervise. The logistics for this operation could become unmanageable depending on the situation of active cases in the concerned states. Thirdly, candidates from all parties will have to declare their criminal records publicly on newspapers and news channels and their respective political parties would require to furnish reasons to the ECI as to why tickets are given to such candidates. If implemented without government interference this may result in a most positive development to a persistent issue.

 

Another provision could’ve been a positive takeaway had the ECI made it mandatory to file nominations online. But unfortunately, the ECI has made this mode of filing nomination only optional. The CEC Sushil Chandra also said that any delay in holding the elections would’ve been undemocratic. Well, the love for democracy in our country is becoming quite selective nowadays. During the elections held last year amid the raging second wave when the vaccination was not at all adequate, a large number of polling officials and other frontline officials succumbed to COVID-19 infections. Perhaps, they all sacrificed their lives for this love for democracy. Nevertheless, this time the ECI has shown some promising moves and it’d all depend on how much guts it has to implement all these.

 

About the Omicron-led COVID-19 situation in the country it seems certain now that all the governments/authorities have accepted gratefully that Omicron is a mild virus and cannot cause any medical needs in the fully vaccinated citizens. Many states have pointed out that most medical admissions, that too not serious, have been of that of the unvaccinated while some cities boast that there has not been a single ICU case. Well, with the hospital beds still empty, medical oxygen in full supply and jabs in full swing plus booster doses already starting, they can legitimately be complacent and boast. 

No wonder, the sate of Maharashtra that registered more than 40,000 new cases in the last 24 hours, is still sitting pretty and contented. We fervently hope that they are indeed doing the right thing and that the Omicron scare disappear soon and the warnings of the supreme health authority, WHO, prove totally unwarranted. In any case, why to blame the elections only while religious festivals like the Ganga Sagar Melain West Bengal being allowed where millions of devotees across the country are taking holy dips, like they did during the Kumbh Mela last year in the peak of the second wave.

Why Should Death Be A Good News?

Media-persons, including this writer, have the habit of prioritizing news stories/reports on the basis of how many people have died or are adversely affected, which is actually necessary to structure a news bulletin, always a tough job doing justice to the stories, selecting them and giving the prominence a story deserves. When a reporter comes in to the newsroom stating that an accident or any kind of such tragic happenings has occurred in which 2-4 people have died the news editor would just grimace it away and most often would ask it to be included in the scroll. If the fatalities are around 10 it normally gets into the bulletin as an important story, and when the toll is more than 15/20 then it becomes a headline news story. Well, this is unfortunate indeed; but in a hyperactive newsroom it becomes unavoidable. However, such stories are never taken as a good news story.

 

Deaths are always unfortunate whatever be the number, because for the person who succumbs in an accident or is killed it signals the end of the world for him/her. Yes, death is a very normal and inevitable part of human existence as we live with deaths all around us till our turns which always seem to be unreal and elusive. But dying unnecessary or avoidable deaths always hurt the most. If there is an outbreak of a disease or an endemic or a pandemic people die in varying numbers; but the question remains as to why at all should they die. Why such deaths are not preventable in the age of the most advanced modern medical science and amenities?

 

What has suddenly prompted me to write these words? Well, in a very well-known private news channel in India I had the misfortune to watch and hear the anchor reporting a few deaths as a ‘good news’! The anchor was narrating the Omicron-led COVID-19 pandemic spread story in Mumbai that more than 20,000 new cases were reported in the city in the last 24 hours which is the highest ever of all the three waves, and then said ‘but the good news is that there are only 4 deaths in the same period’. Sure, the anchor said this while making a comparison with the disastrous second wave. But, terming the fewer deaths as a ‘good news’ is extremely unfortunate. Recently, in the same channel, one sensitive doctor echoed my thoughts by saying that if the country is fully prepared to face the third wave why at all people should die, whatever be the number.  

 

Death can never be a cause for celebration even if one of your deadliest enemies dies suddenly. Some perverted and sadistic souls may rejoice within themselves, but it just can never be made official before the general public. During the pandemic years it has, most unfortunately, become a habit with the governments or authorities boasting of reducing the fatality figures and thus bringing the virus under control. I must emphasize again that even though only one person dies unnecessarily it is the end of the world for him/her and for his/her family.

 

Of course, it is also true that most ignorant or careless people do rush to their deaths by throwing all precautions and norms out of the window. Governments or authorities can only issue the rules and regulations, they cannot force all citizens to follow them. Finally, it is the duty of the citizens to take care of themselves and their kin, particularly the elderly people in their families. In India people of all religious faiths believe that their heavenly protectors would always protect them and, in that spirit, they throng to the temples or any places of worship in large numbers to offer their prayers and get the blessings, even if it amounts to blatant violations of the norms. All the true saints and preachers have said since times immemorial that Gods or your protectors live within you and all around you, and you can seek the blessings from the confines of your heart, it is not at all necessary to rush to the places of worship, stumbling, stampeding over each other. 

PM Modi Announces Booster Doses And Jabs For Kids Even As DCGI Approves Covaxin For 15-18 Age Group!

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced, in another unexpected national address late evening yesterday perhaps as a Christmas gift like he did recently on the occasion of Prakash Parv  (an annual festival of the Sikhs in Punjab and Haryana) to repeal the Three Farm Laws, booster doses or precautionary doses for the healthcare and frontline workers and all citizens above 60 years of age with comorbidities, to start from the 10th of January 2022, amid the rising Omicron scare in India. In a bid to make the parents confident enough to send their children to the schools the Prime Minister further announced vaccines jabs for children between 15 and 18 years of age to start from January 3, 2022. He also appealed to the people to not panic and follow COVID appropriate behavior strictly while cautioning them against rumors, fear mongering and misinformation. This announcement of the PM has been hailed all over as the most welcome move considering the global Omicron crisis—by the medical fraternity and others including even the opposition political parties. The ‘Booster Dose’ debate has been raging in India since the last few months. 

PM Modi has also presented a positive scenario with the logistics of preparation across the country. He hailed India’s vaccination drive started on January 16, 2021 which has now covered 61% of the population with double vaccine jabs and 91% of the population having at least one jab. The Prime Minister informed the nation that at the moment the country has 1.8 million isolation beds, 0.5 million oxygen supported beds, 1,40,000 ICU beds, 90,00 ICU and non-ICU beds specially for the children, more than 3 thousand PSA or Pressure Swing Adsorption oxygen plants, 0.4 million oxygen cylinders and more support to the states is being ensured for buffer stocks of vaccines and facilities for testing. While praising the efforts of the medical doctors, scientists and experts Modi said that India’s pandemic fight has been based on scientific principles, active consultations and methods throughout the period. 

There is some uncertainty about which of the two main vaccines being administered in India—Covishield and Covaxin—would be used for the booster doses. It is being speculated, with some medical logic behind it, that the doubly-vaccinated with Covishield would get Covaxin as the booster dose and the doubly-vaccinated with Covaxin would get Covishield jab as the booster dose. The priority of fully vaccinating about 40% of the Indian population who have either got one dose and not vaccinated at all, remains still. To make it happen as soon as possible experts across different fields and state governments have been asking the Government of India to reduce the gap of 12-16 weeks to a month for Covishield jabs. The gap between Covaxin jabs is 28 days, but Bharat Biotech has not been able to manufacture and supply enough doses in comparison to Covishield. 

It is also to be noted that Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin for children of the 2-18 age group had been approved on October 12 this year by the Subject Expert Committee (SEC) of the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) and since then the regulatory body’s final seal has been awaited. It has been reported that, to make very sure of the safety issues, the DCGI had appointed another SEC to go through all aspects and finally approved the vaccine yesterday; but only for the 12-18 age group which is a disappointment. The delay has been more frustrating considering the fact that world’s first DNA-based 3-dose non-injectable vaccine for children above 12 years of age Zydus Cadila’s Zycov-D, was approved by the DCGI as far back as in August this year. Anyway, better late than never, and we hope for the best now. Many experts have commented about children having strong immunity against severe disease after infection; but our concern has always been that children may take the virus home where elders also live. 

There is also the issue of the efficacy of the existing vaccines and even the booster doses against Omicron and even the World Health Organization (WHO) is not able to make up its mind yet to suggest or to not suggest the booster doses even as many countries have already gone ahead with that. However, it is more or less accepted that even though the vaccines and the booster doses may not be very effective in preventing COVID-19 and Omicron infections or re-infections the full doses can certainly reduce the severe type of the disease, thus reducing hospitalization and deaths. We further hope that the PM’s steps and the level of preparedness is not used as a justification for going ahead with the assembly elections in 5 states. 

India Tour Of South Africa: Rohit Named Regular Captain In The Shorter Formats, Virat Retained In Tests!

The regime of having different captains for different formats for which we have been writing in these pages has finally happened with the Indian cricket selectors making opener Rohit Sharma the regular captain in the ODIs and T20Is with effect from India’s tour of South Africa-2021-22 while the captain of all formats since 2017, Virat Kohli, has been retained as captain for the 3-match Test Series starting on the boxing day, 26^th December 2021, in Centurion.

This move, probably under the guidance of the new Head Coach Rahul Dravid, is ideally aimed at allowing the wonder of a batsman Virat Kohli to play freely and most importantly, in view of the ICC Men’s World Cup-2023 to be hosted by India for the one day format. This could also be a reflection of the fact that Virat is yet to win an ICC Cup! It is unfortunate that Ajinkya Rahane, the hero of the great Indian comeback in Australia in January this year when Kohli left for home for domestic reasons, has lost his place in Tests as vice-captain to Rohit Sharma who is also assigned to be Kohli’s deputy in Tests. Although Rohit has crossed the age of 34, a year older than both Virat and Ajinkya, he seems to be the right choice as the most experienced senior player to take charge. As we had mentioned quite a few times in these pages the practice of the different-captains regime has been followed by most of the big cricket playing nations.

 

Notwithstanding the outbreak of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 in South Africa the respective cricket boards of the two countries have decided to go ahead with the 3-match Test Series and the 3-match ODI Series, albeit delayed by a week, under a strict bio-bubble plus regulations, with the T20I Series yet to be scheduled, by announcing their Test squads late evening yesterday,. While the Indian selectors have announced an 18-member test squad South Africa announced a 21-member squad. The teams can also expect small crowds of fully vaccinated people at the playing grounds.  

 

Rahane despite his being out-of-form in the last 16 tests has been retained in the Test squad along with the inconsistent Cheteshwar Pujara which is a good move too for their experiences as specialist Test cricketers. Useful all-rounder Hamuma Bihari who has already been playing in South Africa for the India-A team has made a comeback. Shreyas Iyer has also been included for his great showing against New Zealand at home. The other rested seniors players— KL Rahul, Rishabh Pant, Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Shami—have all joined the team. Although opener Mayank Agarwal has been included for his great match-winning battle in the second Test in Mumbai against New Zealand he may not make it to the playing eleven as KL Rahul has come back. Wriddhiman Saha has been retained as the reserve wicketkeeper.

 

Ravindra Jadeja, Shubman Gill and Axar Patel are left out due to injuries, and Jayant Yadav may make it to the playing eleven in the place of Jadeja after the first-choice spinner Ravichandran Ashwin. However, playing two spinners in the tests could be tricky decision considering the fact that most of the pitches in South Africa are fast-paced helping the fast bowlers and India have good choices available in Bumrah, Shami, Umesh Yadav, Ishant Sharma and Mohammed Siraj along with three pacers already playing in South Africa being kept as reserve pacers that include Deepak Chahar, particularly if Hanuma Bihari finds a place in the final eleven. In any case, it would definitely be a toss between Bihari and Jayant in making it to the final eleven.

 

South Africa has announced a 21-member Test squad under the captaincy of Dean Elgar with Temba Bavuma as his deputy. The comeback of medium fast bowler Duanne Olivier who last appeared in 2019 is a significant inclusion. The Proteas have ample choices available in the fast bowling arena with the familiar faces of the IPL, Rabada, Nortje and Ngidi, apart from the others; they have too at least four spinners in the squad with many their batsmen having the ability to throw in a few good overs each. The selection of the final eleven would be as interesting as that of India.

 

The India team is set to leave for South Africa on 12^th of this month, and everything looks good for some absorbing cricket, this Test Series also being a part of the WTC-2021-23 (World Test Championship) which is going to be South Africa’s first. The Omicron is still a scare and hope the variant does not do something real nasty. Of course, the news arena currently abounds with positive reports that the Omicron variant—mutating all the earlier variants like alpha, beta, delta and so on—may finally turn out to be weaker virus that may spread very fast, but may cause only milder diseases like normal flues as has been observed so far in South Africa, United Kingdom and other countries. However, many other experts say that it is too early to say that and it may take weeks to arrive at a decision with more and more data available. Like the continuing phenomenon of the ‘toss’ in cricket it is a ‘toss’ too in the case of Omicron for, hopefully, good results.   

Tick-Tock Suspense In India Amid The COVID-19 Omicron Variant Scare!

Photo: jagran.com

The Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution (TAG-VE) which is an independent group of experts that periodically monitors and evaluates the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and assesses its specific mutations had convened a meeting on 26 November 2021 to assess the emerging COVID-19 variant B.1.1.529 that was first reported to World Health Organization (WHO) from South Africa on November 24, 2021. The epidemiological situation in South Africa has been characterized by three distinct peaks in reported cases, the latest of which was predominantly the Delta variant that originated in India. In recent weeks, infections have increased steeply, coinciding with the detection of B.1.1.529 variant.

This variant has a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning. Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other Variants Of Concern (VOCs). The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa. Current RT-PCR tests continue to detect this variant, pending genome sequencing confirmation.

Based on the evidence presented which is indicative of a detrimental change in COVID-19 epidemiology, the TAG-VE has advised WHO that this variant should be designated as a VOC, and the WHO, on Friday, has designated B.1.1.529 as a VOC, naming it as Omicron.

Countries have been asked by the global apex health body to do the following:

1. Enhance surveillance and genome sequencing efforts to better understand the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants.

2. Submit complete genome sequences and associated metadata to a publicly available database.

3. Report initial cases/clusters associated with VOC infection to WHO through the IHR mechanism.

4. Individuals are reminded to take measures to reduce their risk of COVID-19, including proven public health and social measures such as wearing well-fitting masks, hand hygiene, physical distancing, improving ventilation of indoor spaces, avoiding crowded spaces, and getting vaccinated.

This scary warning has rudely awakened India from a comfortable slumber registering today the lowest number of active cases in over one and half years, and declining daily infections with only the state of Kerala still showing high figures in both infections and deaths. This situation is significant, because it's now more than three weeks since the biggest festival of Diwali. But the fact remains that laxity creeps in during the festive season in terms of low rates of testing, surveilance and other regulatory measures that implies that the displayed figures may not represent the reality. The most well-known and prominent expert voice, Dr. Randeep Guleria (Director, AIIMS, Delhi), has recently said in his regular interviews to news channels that this time last year too was similar, and surge of infections was taking place in Europe, and then the Delta explosion happened in India. He stressed that preparedness must always be there as we've been again watching multiple surges in Europe at the moment including Russia in particular and the possibility of the much-discussed Third Wave is still lurking in India. Now, the Omicron threat has made the situation here like a lull before the storm. 

The Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, has responded immediately to WHO directions by holding a two-hour health preparedness meeting today morning. He has asked citizens to be proactive and follow all COVID norms. The Prime Minister requested the Aviation sector to review its decision to relax international air travel from December 15 this year and to test and quarantine all international travelers from countries at risk. He stressed upon the need to increase surveilance, strict containment in cluster infections and to ramp up genome sequencing, the same point being also raised by Dr. Guleria in an interview today. Modi also also asked for the full mobilization of the efforts by the states in a collective fight against the pandemic. Alerts have been issued to the health sector and the hospitals. 

The Omicron strain having more than 30 mutations within itself has already spread to countries like Belgium, Israel and Hong Kong. As it enters human bodies through the spike proteins it can be much more infectious and can evade vaccines or immunity. Almost all of the infected people in South Africa have got both doses of vaccination. However, enough data is still not there to say if this variant is deadlier than the Delta or if it can lead to severe disease, hospitalizations and deaths. As a hopeful development the Moderna vaccine producer has said that they can come ready with a booster dose in a few weeks' time to effectively tackle Omicron. 

Many European countries already under surges of Delta infections and having the irony of facing protest-demonstrations against COVID controls, and the US have started imposing travel restrictions for South Africa and other African nations. So then, it is tick-tock suspense on the future course of the pandemic in a relaxed and election bound India. Indian citizens including the politicians and the leaders themselves would be better advised to not let down their guards and follow all norms as sincerely as possible. Another disaster like the Second Wave must be avoided at all costs. One must understand the COVID-19 virus is not going to give up easily even after nearly two years, and on the contrary, this virus is busy adding more ammunition to its armour to go on launching merciless assaults on humankind. In Karnataka, there are cluster infections in students after the reopening of educational institutions and most of the infected have been double-vaccinated. It is imperative now to genome sequence their samples as intensively as possible. 

Vaccination of the under-18 should also be given the highest priority.