Bihar Elections-2020: Was Chirag Paswan BJP’s Conscious Strategy?

 

Defying all exit polls, the BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) came back to power with a simple majority in the closely fought Bihar Assembly Elections-2020, giving the fourth consecutive CM-term and fifth overall to Nitish Kumar. All of the exit polls gave simple to two-third majority to the MGB (Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance) led by the young energetic face of Bihar, Tejaswi Yadav, son of the Bihar stalwart and former Chief Minister for three terms, Laloo Prasad Yadav, who had been in jail since a long time on corruption cases, and predicted Tejaswi to be the next CM. One or two exit polls indicated, in the worst scenario, a hung assembly.

 

Various reasons have been ascribed for the incredible comeback of the NDA against all odds. The primary reasons are: the continuing influence of the Modi-factor, the 12 crucial rallies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Bihar where he warned people against falling for the ‘Jungle Reign’ of the RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) led by Laloo and family, a majority of the women voters favoring Modi and the NDA, and that Asaduddin Owaisi, MP and President of AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen), deciding to contest on its own in all the Muslim-dominated regions of the state, and thus weaning away crucial votes that RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) and the Congress were expected to garner for the MGB.

 

However, the most crucial factor or the so-called X-factor had been the pre-poll acrobatics of the Lok Janshakti Dal (LJP which was formed in 2000 by Ram Vilas Paswan) led by Member of Parliament Chirag Paswan, son of another stalwart of Bihar politics, Ram Vilas Paswan, who had been a central minister for the NDA government in India and unfortunately died on 8^th October this year. He also served as a minister in the UPA government earlier under former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. When Ram Vilas was alive in the first week of October the LJP left the NDA in Bihar saying that they did not want to fight elections under Nitish Kumar, and would continue to support BJP fighting on its own. So, the LJP went ahead contesting as many as 143 seats in the 243-seat Bihar legislative assembly.

 

After the demise of Ram Vilas, Chirag had been consistently opposing the leadership of Nitish Kumar and saying that they would be devoted to Modi and BJP and would form a government with the BJP in a new alliance. So, a situation emerged where a party not in the time-tested BJP alliance led a campaign against an integral NDA partner while vowing all the support for the BJP. And the BJP leadership kept mum all the time on Chirag utterances and deeds. This politically-unique Chirag-factor has been discussed and analyzed by various political experts all the while; but since the absurd situation made my head break at times, I decided to write about it.

 

It is not at all practical to assume that the BJP think-tank was not aware of the strong anti-incumbency wave against three-term-CM Nitish Kumar and open public anger for his mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic and the migrant workers of the state. The party leadership must have thought about it, and after much brainstorming must have approved the Chirag factor. There were obvious reasons why this strategy would work:

v This was sure to improve the acceptability of the BJP as it in a way joined the voters in their wrath against the serving Chief Minister;

v BJP has been known to playing as a Big Brother in any alliance in states, and this strategy would either eliminate Nitish’s JDU (Janata Dal-United) from the alliance entirely or would reduce its numbers drastically making its influence much weaker;

v Even if the probability of forming a BJP-LJP government in Bihar was far remote, the Chirag-factor would at least contribute as a vote-cutter, mostly affecting the JDU candidates and also for the RJD and other partners of the MGB like the Congress and the Left; and

v This strategy can also be seen as an effective counter against the surging young leader Tejaswi putting up another energetic young promising leader in the guise of Chirag.

Now, after the results were finally declared in the wee hours of 11^th November the following benefits to the BJP were apparent:

vBJP’s tally of seats increased remarkably to 74, almost making it the singe largest party in the assembly;

vAs was anticipated, JDU’s seats got hit to the extent of a loss of 28 seats, effectively making it the junior partner in the alliance;

vAs the margins of victories in the suspense-thriller of an election were very thin the Chirag vote-cutting visibly harmed the prospects of RJD and the Congress primarily, in many crucial assembly constituencies; and

vEven though the LJP finally managed to win only one seat it has emerged strongly as an ally for the BJP in future.

Of course, the strategy had its elements or risks that Nitish Kumar would decide to feel insulted and humiliated by the actions of non-NDA Chirag Paswan, and would walk out of the alliance post-poll which eventuality would have made the situation ripe for a Maharashtra-like twist. Therefore, the BJP always maintained that JDU had been an integral part of the NDA and Nitish Kumar was always the Chief Minister candidate. After declaration of the results the BJP has again reiterated the fifth term for Nitish. In the event of a BJP-LJP majority Nitish would have definitely been out even as Nitish said, emotionally and also significantly, in his last rally that it was going to be his last election.

 

How effectively the NDA alliance in Bihar works in the coming months and years is to be observed and seen. MGB has emerged as a great force in the state with 110 seats, and it will not be an easy ride for the NDA at 125 seats. Creating more and more jobs and tackling the migrant workers expertly would be the acid test for the new government, and the MGB won many hearts in Bihar with its focus on creation of jobs. In an expected move today, the Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, while announcing another pandemic-stimulus package listed out a plethora of measures for job creation across the country.

Another Student Commits Suicide: Digital Education Still A Mirage!

 

Online education had been hailed as an integral part of the new normal after the COVID-19 pandemic hit India and lockdowns were imposed from 25^th March 2020 onwards. Schools and colleges were closed since late February, and after more than 8 months the much-touted online education is still not affordable for students of the poorer sections. The dream of Digital India had been sold years before with tremendous emphasis on smartphones and connectivity, even in the rural belt. And yet, one more bright student in a college in India’s capital commits suicide due to lack of a mere laptop or a proper smartphone with good internet connection. Earlier, incidents of students’ suicides were reported regularly from various states including Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Assam.

 

Her name is Aishwarya Reddy, a topper in 12^th standard exam from the state of Telangana. This bright ambitious student got admitted in the prestigious Lady Shri Ram College of Delhi last year, as a B.Sc. Mathematics student. In February this year she came back to her home in Telangana as colleges were closed. Online classes were started after a few months by her college, and she found it increasingly difficult to attend and learn from these on her ordinary mobile phone and poor internet connection. She asked her father for a laptop, no problem even if it is a second-hand one. Her struggling father could not get it on time, and a part of India’s bright future committed suicide on November 2, leaving behind a suicide note saying that she did not want to burden her family further amid the pandemic-induced financial crisis.    

 

Her father has been a motorcycle mechanic who established his own repair shop only in March, and had to close it down after lockdown was clamped. To raise the money for his daughter’s higher education he mortgaged his house for Rs. 2,00,000, and was able to get her admitted in the Delhi college last year. Like millions of other workers and migrants he too got severely hit by the lockdown, as sources of income dried up completely. Although he opened his shop again recently, he had been struggling with his heavy compounded debt. Therefore, he was unable to get even a second-hand laptop for his daughter. And he lost her and the family’s hope, forever.

 

What about her college in the capital itself? Well, the Principal denied any knowledge of the student’s condition, and said further that the student never approached college authorities or teachers about her problems. Such claims are highly contestable, because when you do online classes with your students you have to accommodate all your registered students, and if some are missing in the classes you have to find out the reasons why. Besides, other sources in the college disclosed that she did indeed contact the college authorities with her issues, and nothing was done in the months that followed.

 

Aishwarya’s father also stated that she was selected for the INSPIRE scholarship by the Ministry of Science and Technology in the first quarter of the year, but the scholarship money never reached her. Why the delay happened is another contentious issue involving the college administration and the related Ministries including the HRD. If only a part of the scholarship money reached her even a few days back a precious life could have been saved.

 

A tremendous irony for a country that has been boasting of a Digital India since years, declared a new education policy and has been talking of self-reliance since the pandemic invaded the country. The Government of India has been continuously saying that the pandemic is indeed a great opportunity for momentous and permanent tasks and measures to strengthen our economy, but if you cannot provide for your students, the future of your country, then what opportunity are you talking about! Months back, this writer pointed out in social media that the greatest opportunity to take from the pandemic is to ensure a Digital India, giving away free smartphones/laptops to the needy students and making online education available and affordable for all rural and urban students.

 

But alas! Even after eight months of crisis the logistics are still not clear for the government. In the name of stimulus packages, they only provided free rations, but not the crucial financial assistance that millions were desperate to get. Do we need another pandemic and scores of more suicides to finally realize the priorities?

                                                                                                                            (Courtesy: NDTV Report)

Anticlimactic Twist To An Absorbing IPL-2020, KXIP And RR Eliminated!

IPL-2020 has been one of the most absorbing versions ever given very different terrains in the United Arab Emirates, its three stadiums being Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Sharjah. Dubai is almost similar to the Indian flat tracks inducing high scores while the pitches in Abu Dhabi and Sharjah are on the slower side, both rather helping the bowlers yielding mostly modest scores, more than 200 runs very rare. That IPL 2020 is so absorbing is clear from the fact that only a couple of matches to be played in the final stage of the league, only one team has officially qualified for the play-offs and it is still not clear which three of the five teams would finally join MI there. Of course, Dhoni’s CSK had already been officially eliminated from the tournament, along with KXIP and RR as of today.

 

We had maintained in our earlier IPL piece that thanks to the slowish nature of the pitches the struggle between the bat and the ball was keener, and therefore, we were having many hard-fought humdingers. Besides, we also said that the Indian win-toss-and-chase strategy had been almost neutralized here which was a healthy sign for competitive cricket. However, things have changed dramatically in the final week of the league stage.

 

We are seeing now active application of the Indian strategy, that is to say, win toss and choose the option of chasing a target, and this has been paying off. In several crucial matches we are getting used to watching the toss-losing side batting first and making perfect mess of a target, with at least 2/3 bowlers, both spinners and pacers, of the rival sides creating havoc.  Yesterday we had seen a perfectly balanced side RCB making just 120 runs batting first against SRH and another top side DC setting a pathetic target of 110 runs against MI. In earlier matches we saw CSK and RR easily chasing down competitive targets set by KKR and KXIP respectively. In all these matches and in a few more the winning sides have consistently been the ones winning the toss and then opting to chase. Such has been the importance of the toss that all these matches ended as thoroughly one-sided affairs, adding an anticlimactic tinge to an otherwise absorbing tournament.

 

The most spectacularly disappointing victims have been RCB and DC, two top teams who amassed 14 points each more than a week back, and since the last one week had been unable to win just one match to proceed to the play-off stage. DC has lost last four games on the trot while RCB lost three. Of course, at least one of them would still make it to the play-offs. The struggling first and then resurging, Team KXIP had done all the hard work to amass 12 points and needed to win at least one of the remaining two matches. They lost both: against RR on 30^th October and against CSK today.

 

Funnily enough, CSK, after being eliminated from the tournament, has become a sort of kingmaker, preventing two teams from entering the play-offs: eliminating KXIP today and almost doing the same defeating KKR (on 12 points for a long time) on October 29. To the question as to why this strategy is evolving the answer is not forthcoming. The common theory is that pitches are slowish okay, but dew is affecting the bowlers of the toss-losing side and helping the chasing side score with greater ease.

 

The lament is the probability of either KKR or KXIP winning those matches that would have given them at least 14 points each had they won the tosses and chased. Of course, we cannot cry too hoarse for KKR, because the team has been suffering from an unpredictability of the West Indies type, non-performance of key players, change of team leaders and a classic saga of strategical mistakes. Then the two teams of RR and SRH that had been performing indifferently are surging at this late stage, RR is gone today, but SRH is still in the fight.

 

As we go on talking about the anti-climax of one-sided matches, we just have had a reversal of our own theory in the tough match between KKR and RR today in Dubai. As per the set strategy RR decided to field first after winning the toss. Through the usual series of fits and starts KKR finally managed to set an imposing target of 192. Then they entered the battlefield like charged Royal Bengal Tigers and made an attacking RR totter getting half of the side out in less than five overs. The rest just lingered on, the match turning out to be entirely one-sided, but neutralizing the set pattern. KKR won the match by  60 runs in 20 overs and earned 14 points to be in the fourth position, their only concern at the moment being a low net run-rate (NRR). RCB and DC also have low NRRs while SRH has a much higher one.

 

Now we need to wait two more days for the final line-up. Today, RR and KXIP are eliminated. Tomorrow’s RCB Vs DC match would ensure one of them reaching the play-off with 16 points while the last league encounter between SRH and MI on 3^rd November would be important only for the former as the latter is already the number 1 in the play-off line-up. We might be having 2 or 3 teams locked with 14 points each and in that eventuality NRR would decide the qualifiers. So, absorbing yes, but the one-sided matches are always disappointing. And we fervently hope that the win-toss-and-chase strategy does not influence the play-off matches. The first Qualifier is to be played in Dubai on 5^th November, the Eliminator and the second Qualifier in Abu Dhabi on 6^th and 8^th November while the Final will be played in Dubai on 10^th November.