India’s COVID-19 Situation: A Crucial Juncture!

The largely preventable or at least controllable marauding second COVID-19 wave in India seems to be ebbing with around 39000 new infections in the last 24 hours and around 700 fatalities in the same period. However, the crisis is far from over with the spree of unlocking taking place all around the nation and the most feared third wave lurking somewhere in the corner. Most of the places except for educational institutions and cinema halls have been reopening in most of the states, with only containment zones still put under strict restrictions. The grim milestone of deaths at over 4 hundred thousand has also been reached with at least two hundred thousand extra fatalities suspected. Further, unlocking cannot be avoided indefinitely due the issue of livelihoods, and in light of the fact that the national positivity rate is now around 2.5% unlocking is technically justified. However, the state governments of India must display extreme caution and aggressive testing, tracing and containment. 

 

Now, the main problem that occurs due to unlocking is the growing COVID inappropriate behavior of the people: social distancing in most Indian markets or in public places is practically impossible, but at least compulsory masking and hand hygiene must follow which, unfortunately, gets forgotten or neglected. With the devastatingly infectious Delta variant still dominant in the country and spreading across the globe it takes little time for another deadly explosion of infections. Besides, there is one more variant called the Delta Plus which could become a cause of concern sooner than later. Then there are the other terrors of black fungus, supplementary infections in hospitals and the long COVID syndrome.

 

In such a situation vaccination becomes the only option for some protection: experts have been maintaining that although the vaccines—three in India at the moment, namely Covishield, Covaxin and the Russian Sputnik V—cannot guarantee full protection against infections these have been proved to provide protection against the severe form of the disease and hospitalization or possible deaths. Unfortunately, India has been infested with the vaccine shortage problem when the doses were desperately needed. The Government of India has been stoutly denying any such shortage consistently the superficiality of which claim has been exposed many times with many vaccination centers closing down across the nation and huge rushes in the existing centers.

 

We can see in the photographs in this piece the rush for jabs in a walk-in center in Kolkata. In fact, such huge gatherings for jabs can be a great risk for infections. Besides, there are several vaccine frauds taking in various places including Mumbai and Kolkata that hardly help matters. We hope the Government of India would, as promised, regularize supply of vaccines from July 2021 and complete vaccination of all target age groups by December this year. Accelerated vaccination is the primary hope of reducing human sufferings if the third wave happens to strike.

 

Of course, there are some hopeful indications too. The COVID-19 national expert panel, severely criticized for keeping mum about the gnawing second wave since March this year, has maintained that if the third wave indeed strikes the cases are likely to be half of that in the second wave. Secondly, as per historical evidence the second wave of any pandemic or epidemic normally wreaks the greatest havoc on humans. Therefore, the third wave may not be as deadly as feared. Lastly, some medical experts believe that as a virus keeps on mutating to develop vaccine resistance or breakthroughs it keeps on getting weaker and weaker, and in the process it stops impacting human lives at some period of time. We hope that period happens now and humankind manages to throw off the greatest curse to have befallen on them in its entire history. 

A Lockdown Remix Experience In Peoples’ Land Kolkata!

If we can assume that people are already familiarized with the concept of lockdown as it has been more than a year since the national lockdown was imposed in India in March 2020, on the basis of this assumption we can go on to opine that the present version of the lockdown in Kolkata and the state of West Bengal has been a remix. Of course, the local media here has been terming this as only a ‘near-lockdown’, and we also know the kind of ‘mixed’ approaches adopted by various states of India to lockdown, but the experience here is unique and not related to most of the other states. We have decided to call it a remix, because under this process the old is often presented in a new getup to attract and excite the common people, and the state lockdown here has been a genuine remix with continuous tweaking to make it more and more user-friendly for the larger interests of the common people of West Bengal, particularly the state capital of Kolkata.

 

Yes, peoples’ interests. Nothing moves or gets implemented here that happens to adversely affect the prospects of the people in their easy and smooth going lifestyle—let it be their financial interests or social or cultural. It is extremely difficult here to increase local train, metro or bus fares, even when these become inevitable, because this would increase the cost of living in a significant way for the common people, and it has been seen that government after government avoided, as far as possible, taking the risks of going against the interests of their citizens. Similarly, posh or even moderately comfortable and convenient public restaurants/bars/eating joints are extremely rare here, because once modern comforts are provided the prices will have to be increased which would severely affect the footfalls; and therefore, you’d find here only street-side food or tea stalls, tented eating places and makeshift eating joints with almost no seating arrangements. I had written about my predicament on various occasions in this city when I was desperate to find a place to seat and take my food in relative comfort. However, my determination of ‘No Eating Standing’ only proved to be my greatest detriment.

 

Perhaps the renaissance of Indian literature that primarily started here during the British period made the people here highly educated, liberal and very conscious of their rights—political, social and intellectual, and the long rule of the Left for seven consecutive terms from 1977 to 2011 made them socialistic and believers of equal right and justice in society. Thanks to all these the state and its city of joy remained a peoples’ land of for the people, of the people and by the people. The latest example is there for all to behold: the people here thwarting the mightiest of political parties from grabbing political power here as the strategy and policies of that party never suited the politically conscious people here. Of course, in a modern perspective such people-centric policies do affect the development process adversely and this has indeed harmed the state. However, this is not the forum to discuss this issue and we must return to our basic subject—the lockdown syndrome here.

 

Lockdown was finally announced in West Bengal on the 15^th of May 2021 with first phase starting 16^th to 30^th May. It looked to be quite strict: only essential local markets to be open for just 3 hours during 7-10am, non-essential shops not to open anytime of the day and people not allowed loitering around in the streets after 9 pm, apart from all other closures of malls, cinema halls and so on. And then the tweaks: all sweet shops to remain open 10 am-5 pm; all Sareeand jewellery shops to function from 12 noon to 3 pm; and no supervision about non-essential shops like paan-cigarette shops or street-side tea/snack stalls also opening during the 7-10 am window. The state government does have sound economical considerations: small traders and vendors cannot be allowed to suffer like they did in the national lockdown; sweet-making is arguably the biggest industry in Bengal employing a huge population and common people here cannot exist without what they consider items with even medicinal values; similarly, Saree and ornaments are the traditional requirements of the people, apart from the huge numbers employed in these trades too.

 

As expected, the lockdown was extended till 15^th June. Although the basic windows of various openings were maintained the state government threw open one more avenue: all non-essential shops that were not allowed to open during the first phase could now function during 12 noon to 3 pm slot. The catch in this is that it is kept ambiguous if the shops functioning between 7 to 10 am could get one more business chunk in the new slot. Thanks to this ambiguity, almost all the shops are now doing effective business from 7 am to 3 pm with some, like sweet shops, even extending till 8 pm as there is not enough police intervention.  

 

As far as the Lives Vs Livelihood and the economy debates go the state government seems to be sticking to the peoples’ interests even under extraordinary circumstances; it is difficult to choose the right from wrong here. However, risks are being taken; there is no doubt about that. Fortunately, West Bengal was spared from an explosion of infections during the first wave and in the second wave too so far so good. When the first lockdown was imposed here there were around 19000 daily infections (nearly 4000 in Kolkata) and about 150 daily deaths; since the lockdown the figures have come down to around 5000 (less than 1000 in Kolkata) and less than 100 respectively. We hope the optimism and the spirit of the people hold good eliminating the virus altogether in near future as there seems to be little prospect of one more extension of the lockdown beyond 15^th June.

Why No Lockdown In West Bengal Or Still No National Lockdown?

A stupendous election victory against the might of the national ruling party; Didi Mamata Bannerjee installed for the third term as Chief Minister of  West Bengal; and the immediate promise to take the fight against the COVID-19 virus in its deadly second wave head on. But, in the days that followed the state government had not shown any real intent to take on the promised fight, deciding only to augment a little the earlier state administration order that was announced a day prior to the counting of votes on 2^nd May 2021, to shut down restaurants, cinema halls, malls, gyms, sport complexes and so on, and to schedule the business hours of the general markets.

 

The order came the very day of the oath-taking ceremony, no doubt a very subdued affair due to the situation, of Mamata Bannerjee as the new Chief Minister; but, unfortunately, the new order yields precious little in terms of strict curbs or a most-preferred complete lockdown. The order follows largely the same format of the previous order except for the rescheduling of the business hours of the general markets, completely stopping the local train services with immediate effect, reducing the trains of the Metro railway by half, buses to run at half-capacity and ordering all government/private offices at 50% attendance. These measures are far from what is actually desired considering the COVID spread in the state, mostly due to the 8-phase state elections. We will see why.

 

First, the daily timings of the general markets are from 7 to 10 in the morning and 5 to 7 in the evening other than the essential shops/stores like the chemists and the groceries which are open as usual, and the jewellery shops from 12 noon to 3 pm; but in actual practice, as observed, all essential/non-essential shops manage to remain open throughout or at best are ‘allowed’ the concession of overshooting the closing hours regularly. An average citizen of any age can easily move out of home, travel from end to end of the city, crowd the market freely during the ‘general’ hours or in the ‘essential’ hours or in the ‘jewellery’ hours and can gorge on street food available on the stalls about which the order is not specific or for that matter, about all other vendors selling anything. This defeats the purpose of the stay-home doctrine, so crucial to break the chain of infections.

 

Second, some of the other measures are contradictory: all offices are to work with 50% attendance, but if local trains are discontinued, metro trains restricted and buses at half-capacity passengers, then how the office-goers are to travel to the workplaces, which means there would be inevitable crowding in the metro trains and in the buses. Not to speak of the commuting needs of the countless businessmen, traders and vendors. Masking norms are mostly being followed in Kolkata and other major cities of the state, but it’s a tough job to enforce the controls in semi-urban and rural areas. Besides, the social distancing norms have been compromised everywhere thanks to the half-hearted measures.

 

Lastly, although the daily COVID-19 cases have risen slowly from around 17000 to around 19000 in the last few days, we had seen rapid rise from around 1000 cases to over 15000 daily cases during the later election period, and our point is that the slow trend in the last few days cannot be justification for liberal norms, for the dangerous variants of the virus can rise exponentially or even explode anytime like in the states of Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh. Therefore, it must be said emphatically that the state government is playing with the lives of the people of the state, and waiting for the cases to explode for imposing lockdown is very risky, considering how people have still been dying due to lack of oxygen, lack of medical facilities and over-stressing of the health infra all over the country.

 

For India as a whole, national lockdown was imposed on 25^th March 2020 with hardly a four-hour notice, when the daily infections were just in a few hundreds, concentrated in Maharashtra and Kerala. Well, this is not to contest the decision to lockdown the country, for in the global perspective and the experience of many countries it was deemed necessary. Data analysts were extrapolating at that time that without lockdown the infections and the deaths would have been in hundreds of thousands. This is exactly our point.

 

While the first pandemic peak in India, reached mid-September 2020, was just above 97000 cases a day and deaths around 1000 a day, the present numbers are more than 4,00,000 daily cases and 4000+ fatalities. The 4-Lakh mark was crossed about ten days back, after which the figures were fluctuating between 3.5 to over 4 Lakh, giving rise to false hopes of the second pandemic peak reached; however, some experts maintain that the peak is expected mid-May or end of May this year. Therefore, it is a valid question to ask: why still no national lockdown? The scenario has been getting bizarre with the states arbitrarily announcing partial or full lockdowns, weekend lockdowns or mini lockdowns whenever they desire, except for the most disciplined state of Maharashtra where the lockdown and anti-COVID strategy has seen the positive results.

 

In fact, a whole lot of medical experts, scientists and international agencies have been urging India to impose national lockdown since over a fortnight. The Government of India is not listening perhaps for the blues of the earlier lockdowns in terms of economic devastation. We say that the damage done last year is due more to lack of planning and haphazard unlocking than the failure of lockdown as a strategy. No doubt, lockdowns are no solutions, but they can definitely break the chain of infections and save lives by forcing people to stay at home. Further, experts believe that there has been much under-reporting in the numbers of daily infections and deaths, some saying that daily deaths must be around 25000 to create that kind of pressure on the crematoriums, the round-the-clock burning pyres all over the country being witness to the immense human tragedy unfolding. At the moment the most important things to do are to prevent more deaths, de-stress the health sector and ensure regular supply of oxygen; and to achieve that a national lockdown is a must, which, experts maintain, has to be of at least of a two-week duration.