Mumbai Monsoon: And Finally The Rains…!

Finally, the South West Monsoon has decided to respect the forecasts issued by the Met department, and in line with the orange alert forecast for Mumbai and adjacent areas during 3-5 July 2020 moderate to heavy rains lashed Mumbai, its suburbs, Thane city and interior areas of Thane district. The aimless clouds hanging over the areas for nearly a month, in Palghar the rains came after a full month, finally became benevolent and converted into a rain-bearing dark mass. The sight of the dark clouds was really inspiring and the impact was immediate with the maximum temperature coming down to 28-29 from 33-34 degree Celsius and the minimum coming down to 25-26 from 27-28 in Mumbai while in Thane city those are 30-31 and 27-28 respectively. The humid heat that tormented the people for weeks evaporated and all heaved a sigh of relief—stay-home becoming more pleasant in view of more curbs being imposed in Mumbai and a total lockdown in Thane for 10 days. The rains started on the 3^rd of July in a scattered way and gained momentum on 4^th and 5^th July.

Heavy to very heavy rains lashed Mumbai and suburbs in the last two days creating water logging in vulnerable spots, but just short of creating havoc, fortunately, for the COVID-hit metro. In Thane rains were mostly moderate and intermittent with one or two spots becoming water-logged while in the interiors the rains were heavier. Around 200 mm of rainfall was recorded each in Mumbai and Thane on 4^th July. In other districts of Maharashtra too the monsoon made its presence felt once again bringing relief to the agitated farmers.

It looks at the moment that the monsoon has finally found it rhythm here, and looking up at the sky or enjoying the usual monsoon coolness one can be more or less sure that the rains would continue regularly for the rest of the season, and not create rain-water havoc with concentrated outbursts. As per the earlier forecast this year the monsoon is to be normal, and as we mentioned in an earlier piece it has already covered the whole of the country much in advance also recording an excess of June-rainfall in many parts. For Mumbai and Maharashtra we also hope that the spikes in Corona infections will be under control soon—several unprecedented things already happening: famous Dahi Handi (Janmastami) celebrations getting canceled and the historical Lord Ganesha (Ganapati)  Festival being restricted with the craze-of-the-city Lalbaug  Chya Raja organizers announcing its cancellation. The priority is to defeat the killer virus. Anyway, for the moment, get set and enjoy the rains…!    

COVID 19: Now The ‘Doubt Virus’ Must Be Exterminated!

Common people mostly have fickle minds; they are always guided by what they want to believe, often to their advantage. When they are worried, frightened and clueless about the future they are most vulnerable to doubt and conspiracy theories. For the last six months people all over the globe are very disturbed by the COVID 19 pandemic, not so much because of the deadly effects of the virus than the restrictions and lockdowns derailing normal life it has brought in its wake. They desperately need to go back to the sweet normal times and live happily ever after, and therefore they jump to accept and believe fully when some motivated souls offer that ‘COVID 19 is a hoax, it’s nothing more than an annual influenza’. Thus the ‘doubt virus’ is created and the social media as always helps it spread—at times much faster than the killer virus. Perhaps the basic impulses for skepticism stem from the facts that more than 80% of Coronavirus positive cases are mild in nature and recover easily, only the elderly with comorbidity are most vulnerable and that on average the death rate is low at 1 to 4% except for some countries. However, facts also show that the dead includes young people too and anyone can be infected by this most contagious virus.

The conspiracy theories originated in the United States, as always, where extraordinarily ‘democratic’ sections of the citizens opposed the lockdown and restrictions from the beginning symbolizing these with the ‘agenda’ of President Trump. Several conspiracy theories linking even the tragic murder of George Floyd started doing the rounds in the US of which we will not make a description here just to prevent vulnerable minds go through and inculcate doubts. We’d only like to mention here that this writer got a social media forward giving a link to an article by some ‘enlightened soul’ who took pains of great arguments to ‘prove’ that the pandemic is a ‘political hoax’. As we mentioned earlier a lot of vulnerable people got influenced by this, and none other than a medical surgeon of the Indian state of Assam who even lodged a FIR alleging that only an ‘annual influenza’ has been labeled as a pandemic and he wanted action against the concerned governments. This, naturally, created a chain of reactions in the state driving news channels asking the hapless common people about their ‘doubts’ on the COVID 19 infections rather than destroying the dilemma.

Now, this ‘annual influenza’ theory breaks down at the basic premise itself: if that is so then this phenomenon must be occurring every year, and why then this year should be so different! Governments need not have gone on an emergency drive to create more and more healthcare facilities including ICU beds just to tackle an annual event of flu. Then come the experiences of various affected countries and governments tackling this ‘annual influenza’ some of which we narrate below as arguments to break such kinds of fake and motivated views:

1.     Let us take the example of the Chinese experiment. Ignoring a lot of conspiracy theories about China itself we just ask here why would China need absolute authoritarian measures to tackle the virus (well, even annual influenza is caused by a virus) in terms of continuous lockdown and rigorous enforcement. After being successful in keeping the infected numbers below 100,000 the country is still fearing a second outbreak, and risking its economic downswing again to prevent its spread. Its aggression against India can also be explained as a part of its apparent desperation. An annual flu cannot explain these.

2.     Why would countries like UK, Italy, Spain, France, USA and Brazil suffer so much from an annual influenza that killed more than half a million so far and is still on its deadly prowls? Why would Italy reduce itself to a state of  helplessness with dead bodies of Corona patients littered everywhere or why would  German finance minister commit suicide over Corona worries? How one is to account for a death rate of over 14% (seen in a few countries) for an annual influenza virus?

3.     Why would the doctors and experts of the World Health Organization keep on telling ‘lies’ that the new Coronavirus is very dangerous that would probably stay for more than two years and the worst is yet to come despite whatever campaigns or actions going on or taken against it? We seemed to have accepted in the beginning that this pandemic is the biggest crisis ever faced by humankind. Now, why have second thoughts and doubts?

4.     Why would countries across the world keep on taking huge risks for an economic crash with unprecedented unemployment and pave the way for a recession possibly even worse than the Great Depression? In particular, why a developing country and a most promising upcoming world power like India should risk whatever it has achieved in development so far.

5.     Why is such a mad rush all over the globe to fast-track production of a vaccine against only an annual flu? At least such an intensive medical research cannot mask a hidden agenda whatever that may be.

In the last twenty-four hours new cases in India have crossed 22000 with the only solace that daily recoveries are more in numbers and death rate is fortunately still low; the concern being a rising positivity rate indication community transmission. At this crucial juncture we should not pay heed to conspiracy theories and fake news. Such theories have obvious goals: to generate publicity for unknown groups or to make a kill in terms of profit. For example, if a link for an article with sensational and terrifying headlines gets circulated across social media and motivated media outlets think of the kind of clicks being generated which directly translate into money.

Therefore, we must not fall prey to such propaganda at any cost. It is heartening to see that several social media platforms have taken steps to neutralize the conspiracy threads.  In relation to India, we need to say here that the government should find time to brief the media frequently as it had been doing earlier to describe facts and quell doubts instead of crouching behind the rising numbers. Similarly, most respected bodies like the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) should desist from publicizing dates for production of vaccines. The announcement by the ICMR that a vaccine might be made possible by 15^th of August 2020 has furthered the doubts already created with even sensible people and the media asking why should the ICMR be in such a hurry. The mantra at this hour must be to fight the killer virus with the combined might of the world and to defeat it preventing its possible second wave. 

Mumbai: Rainless Monsoon Continues…!

This year the South West Monsoon seemed to be obsessively focused on covering the whole  of India as fast as possible, and in in fact, after arriving dot on time and reaching the state of Maharashtra on 11^thJune, 2020 the monsoon started its journey covering region after region and finally arriving in North India 12 days earlier—thus successfully covering the full country in record time. Now, the point is about doing what it’s supposed to do, that is to say, providing the much-needed rains for the cultivation season all around. It had rained in the first days in Maharashtra in good measure helping the farming community, but later it relaxed and lapsed into a mode of fits and starts. As we pointed out in our last piece the monsoon has been kind enough to provide just one good shower to Mumbai and adjacent areas so far . The Met department noted this and made a forecast that the relaxed monsoon would be active again from 28^th of June. However, this has not happened so far causing worries over its future generosity, because lack of rains in the financial capital and its catchment areas will eventually cause water supply shortage and may also lead to bouts of load shedding. Weather forecasts available to citizens are being constantly snubbed, even a 100% forecast of thunderstorm or rains is being defied by the Nature’s emissary.

So, the sweating spree in Mumbai and adjacent areas has no end in sight thus far. The temperatures are refusing of come below 27 degree Celsius while the maximum continues to be in the range of 32-34. Even the normal winds available this side vanish absolutely at most times, particularly during the nights. Humidity in the range of 80-90% is making the heat unbearable for millions who are not fortunate enough to have spacious flats and air-conditioners. The weather follows more or less the same pattern on a daily basis: clouds floating around aimlessly, not able to shun out the sun at most times, and the resultant gloomy atmosphere increases the intensity of the humid heat. There are build-ups though almost every day with dark promising clouds enveloping the sky and a cool wind providing the incentives; but finally rains stop short of falling down frustrating all expectant stakeholders. At times, rare though, you hear a grumbling thunder with occasional blasts with proper cloud cover; but again, the rains do not oblige. On all occasions the skies eventually clear up with almost every wind-less night having the ‘benefit’ of a starry sky.  

The case of Navjyot Singh Sidhu, a star Indian ex-cricketer, who was once described as a ‘stroke-less wonder’ due to his inability to convert strikes to fours and sixes comes to the mind: if we apply this to a ‘rain-less monsoon’! Soon afterwards strokes began to shower Sidhu: we hope this happens to our monsoon woes too. On a recent sun-set the sky assumed a reddish glow all over: it is not clear if it were a warning or a red alert to expect something in a severely COVID affected city and the state. We can only watch and wait. Of course, watching the skies has been becoming a bit tiring due to the resultant frustration and the streaming sweat. We can take solace only in the fact that in various monsoons in the past there had been dry months—sometimes June or sometimes July. So, time is still not running out…and all here are looking at an extended lockdown after the end of this month still...